November 2, 2023 7:46am
Our portfolio that is … torn asunder
Earnings: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
Pre-Open Indications: 1 Positive, 2 Sell into Strength and 1 Negative Indications
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Never leave an investor uninformed!
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize
The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.36% or (+121 points), the S&P is UP +0.54% or (+23 points) as the Nasdaq is UP +0.83% or (+122 points)
Stock futures rose Thursday,
European markets opened higher,
Asia Pacific markets rose sharply,
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Wednesday, indexes gained as the Dow closed UP +221.71 points or +0.67%, the S&P closed UP +44.06 points or +1.05% while the Nasdaq closed UP +210.23 points or +1.64%.
Economic Data Docket: The cost of labor unexpectedly declined in the third quarter, providing at least some relief in the inflation front, the Labor Department reported. Unit labor costs, a measure of hourly compensation against productivity, fell 0.8% for the July-through-September period at a seasonally adjusted rate. Economists had been looking for a gain of 0.7%. On a 12-month basis, unit labor costs increased 1.9%. The breakdown reflected a 3.9% increase in hourly compensation, offset by a 4.7% rise in productivity. That increase in productivity also was more than expected, beating the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 4.3% for the biggest quarterly gain since the Q3/20. Output increased 5.9%, while hours worked rose 1.1%.
Ebb and flow:
Q4: November – 1 positive close
· October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength Indications:
Wednesday’s closing price, Tuesday's closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$1.67 after Tuesday’s -$0.04 with a positive +$0.57 or +21.5% pre-open indication
CRISPR Therapeutics closed up +$4.82 after Tuesday’s $0.00 with a positive +$0.25 or +0.57% pre-open indication
Wednesday’s closing price, some Tuesday, closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.45 with a positive +$0.25 or +0.98% pre-open indication
Wednesday’s closing price, with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Ionis Pharmaceutica’s (IONS) closed up +$0.99 with a negative -$3.29 or -7.27% pre-open indication -EARNINGS
The BOTTOM LINE: Presenting a hypothesis clarifies material facts and evidence available to investors.
Fact-finding is the job of determining the facts relevant to decide about the contents of an article, a post and a deliberation. Fact-checking also involves "research" which is most critical for those who publish about material “events”. Fact-checking methods vary and should always be based on “trust” factor.
- U.S. stock futures pushed higher early Thursday as the major indexes looked set to build on the gains made after the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rates. <Barron’s>
- While a bevy of sector earnings await this week,
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
- "With major unknowns remaining around the central bank's reaction function, and another raft of stronger-than-expected data helping boost U.S. yields, rate differentials are tilting more aggressively against the yen as the session unfolds."
Some other relevant earnings: Moderna (MRNA) expected 2023 revenue of at least $6 billion, a decline reflecting weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines this year, but that it would return to sales growth in 2025 and break even the following year.
- MRNA reported Q3 sales of $1.8 billion, topping analysts' estimates of $1.32 billion, according to LSEG data. Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is its lone marketed product. $900 million of its quarterly revenue came from the U.S. and $800 million from international sales. Moderna said the $6 billion 2023 revenue forecast was based on the expectation that at least 50 million COVID-19 vaccines would be administered in the United States. Shares fell 3% in premarket trading.
Today’s relevancy from Friday’s session and the week’s perspective:
- Forecasting short-term directional movements in the stock market with percentage (%) accuracy is impossible!
- A summed-up quote, “We still have a shaky economic outlook. So, while the third quarter GDP print was extraordinarily high, I think everybody still expects that the US economy is going to slow down. The only question there is how much is it going to slow down and how fast” < Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar>
- Investors should be very cautious, largely holding cash!
What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:
- An aftermarket that reeks of know unknows
- A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
- Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
- The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.