November 7, 2023 7:34am
Gains to pains, back again to further a session or two pain and then some gains
Earnings: Agenus (AGEN), uniQure NV (QURE), Verve therapeutics (VERV)AxoGen (AXGN), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Pre-Open Indications: 1 Positive and 1 Negative Indications
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Never leave an investor uninformed!
Truth and facts versus reality …
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize
The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.28% or (-97 points), the S&P is DOWN -0.28% or (-12 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.15% or (-23 points)
Stock futures were lower on early Tuesday,
European markets were mixed,
Asia Pacific markets closed lower.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes closed up maintaining “some” momentum … Dow closed UP +34.54 points or +0.10%, the S&P closed UP +7.64 points or +0.18% while the Nasdaq closed UP +40.50 points or +0.30%.
Economic Data Docket: Trade balance, September (-$60.5 billion expected, -$58.3 billion previously)
Monday’s - RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “should have read the morning post and followed the lead. Cell and gene therapy sector equities dived in Monday’s trading as indexes struggled to build on their best week of 2023.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13195
Ebb and flow:
Q4: November – 3 positive and 1 negative closes
· October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday Wednesday, Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) closed up +$0.59 with a negative -$0.04 or -0.84%% pre-open indication.
Monday’s closing price, Friday, Thursday closing “number” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$1.19 after Friday’s +$3.05, Thursday’s +$0.40 and Wednesday’s -$0.10, with a neutral $0.00 or pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: latest gains are set to fizzle
Pick your poison, trade any ups, buy into some bottoms, build cash position; as buying the lows - they can eventually be the overbought through unbridled speculation and then trade again.
- I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
- The rally that start in November — historically the strongest month for stocks of the year — resembles a bear market rally rather than a sign of market strength.
While a bevy of sector earnings await this week: as earnings season hasn't served as much of a sector catalyst in recent weeks
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Vericel (VCEL) 11/8 Wednesday
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) 11/9 Thursday
“We think last week's rally in stocks was mainly a function of the fall in back-end Treasury yields. In our view, the drop in Treasury yields was more related to the lower-than-expected coupon issuance guidance and weaker economic data as opposed to the bullish interpretation (for equities) that the Fed is going to cut rates earlier next year in the absence of a labor cycle." < Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley strategist>
In a note later in the day, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic echoed Wilson's sentiment, writing that “there are a number of concerns that should be on investors' radars that suggest the gains are set to fade. We believe that equities will soon revert back to an unattractive risk-reward as the Fed is set to remain higher for longer, valuations are rich, earnings expectations remain too optimistic, pricing power is waning, profit margins are at risk and the slowdown in topline growth is set to continue."
Today’s relevancy from Monday’s session:
- Investors should be very cautious - too many LPS (loss-per-share) earnings, hold some positions and build cash if possible!
- Wednesday - MBA mortgage applications, November 3 (-2.1% previously); Wholesale inventories month-over-month, September (0% previously)
- Thursday - Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 4 (218,000 expected, 217,000 previously)
- Friday - University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (64.0 expected, 63.8 previously)
What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:
- S&P 500 returns haven't been this lopsided since the 2008 financial crisis.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose nine basis points to 4.651%.
- Technical and fundamental support is missing,
- A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
- Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
- The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.