November 8, 2023 7:32am
investors need a cautious voice to check exuberance
Earnings: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Vericel (VCEL)
Pre-Open Indications: 3 Sell into Strength and 3 Negative Indications
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Never leave an investor uninformed!
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Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize
The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.01% or (+5 points), the S&P is DOWN -0.03% or (-1 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.10% or (-15 points)
U.S. stock futures were mixed on Wednesday,
European markets were mixed,
Asia-Pacific markets fell in mixed trading.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
A seven (7) session positive ride with the S&P 500 adding 12.40 points or 0.28%, while the Dow climbed 56.74 or 0.17%, while the Nasdaq advanced 121.08 or +0.90% to post its eighth (8th) straight day of gains
Economic Data Docket: MBA mortgage applications, November 3 (-2.1% previously); Wholesale inventories month-over-month, September (0% previously)
- Mortgage rates plunge: The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased last week to 7.61% from 7.86%. Applications to refinance a home loan increased 2% for the week and were 7% lower than the same week one year ago.
Tuesday’s - RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “: tailwinds pop the sector. Add in “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” contributions that will last how long?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13197
Ebb and flow:
Q4: November – 4 positive and 1 negative closes
· October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up + $3.05 after Monday’s -$0.20, Friday’s +$5.82 after Thursday’s +$4.53, with a neutral $0.00 aftermarket indication.
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$0.65 after Monday’s +$0.46 with a neutral $0.00 aftermarket indication
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$1.19 after Friday’s +$3.05, Thursday’s +$0.40 and Wednesday’s -$0.10), with a neutral $0.00 or pre-open indication.
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, Thursday Wednesday, Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.98 after Monday’s -$0.68, Friday’s +$1.73, Thursday’s -$0.14 and last Wednesday’s +$0.97 with a negative -$0.40 or -2.04% aftermarket indication.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$1.43 after Monday’s -$0.90, Friday’s +$3.46, Thursday’s -$1.53 and last Wednesday’s +$0.99 with a negative -$1.93 or -4.05% aftermarket indication.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed +$1.83 after Monday’s -$1.10), Friday’s +$2.28, Thursday’s +$0.98 and Wednesday’s +$0.45 with a negative -$0.20 or -0.68% pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: Don't ramp up buys in any one day …
As I wrote on Tuesday, pick your poison, trade any ups, buy into some bottoms, build cash position; as buying the lows - they can eventually be the overbought through unbridled speculation and then trade again.
- I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
- Reiterating, the rally that start in November — historically the strongest month for stocks of the year — resembles a bear market rally rather than a sign of market strength.
Coming attractions sector earnings: as earnings season hasn't served as much of a sector catalyst in recent weeks
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) 11/9 Thursday
Today’s relevancy from Tuesday’s session:
- Investors should be very cautious, holding to some positions and building cash if possible!
Economic Data: coming …
- Thursday - Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 4 (218,000 expected, 217,000 previously)
- Friday - University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (64.0 expected, 63.8 previously)
What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:
- Sliding Treasury yields
- The Nasdaq 100 is now clearly breaking a trendline going back to its July 19 high, rising 0.9%.
- A market pause arguably is "due," though it doesn't have to be right away. A modest, low-volume pause or pullback would be healthy, letting some recent winners catch their breath and perhaps form handles. <IBD>
- Technical and fundamental support is missing,
- A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
- The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.