November 8, 2023 5:05pm
Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits <Sell into Strength: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.80), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.03), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.09); Negative Indications: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.13), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.62), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.04)> 0 Miss
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The Dow closed DOWN -40.33 points or -0.12%, the S&P closed UP +4.40 points or +0.10% while the Nasdaq closed UP +10.56 points or +0.08%
Q3 earnings’ reporting cycle is here to confirm whether or not any bottoms are even close to happening?
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We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes slipped mixed on Wednesday, all but barely extending its longest winning streak in about two years.
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line pre-open was negative with 12 incliners, 23 decliners and 1 flat; was negative at the mid-day with 3 incliners and 30 decliners and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat
Ebb and flow:
Q4: November – 4 positive and 2 negative closes
· October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.51% and the XBI was down -2.92%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was negative -0.36 point or -2.43.% at 14.45
Closing Down (10 of 26):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.69 after Tuesday’s +$7.00 and Monday’s +$0.59),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.09 after Tuesday’s +$1.69 and Monday’s -$1.19),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.95 after Tuesday’s +$3.72 and Monday’s -$0.60),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.81),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.36 after Tuesday’s +$1.89 and Monday’s -$1.04),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.24),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.98 and Monday’s -$0.68),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.04 after Tuesday’s +$1.83 and Monday’s -$1.10),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.81),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.80 after Tuesday’s +$3.05),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
Closing Up (8 of 8):
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.37),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.02),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.02),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.02),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.02),
- Agenus (AGEN +$0.0198),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$0.0452)
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0022),
Q4/23 – November
- Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: As I asked and wrote yesterday, “Is the cell and gene therapy sector, a glass half full or half empty … as “our” universe reclaimed positive territory Tuesday" to decline on Wednesday?
Before making or breaking an investment, be sure to check RMi’s market conditions
- As Wednesday’s sentiment within the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing tripped the wire and plunged to yet another low.
- As I had forecasted …
- As I had also stated, “I think the sector is responded yesterday to lower yields as investing decisions are questioning whether there is going to be a meaningful recession or not.”
- Attention is STILL about the viability of earnings season …
Differing from some, I believe upcoming inflation and economic prints will likely factor into equity pain, data continues to signal that the economy is slowing but not quite falling off a cliff.
- Treasury yields have retreated sharply from their recent highs. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note had topped 5% on growing expectations that the Fed had reached the end of its rate-hike cycle, buoyed by a softer-than-expected jobs report.
- Short positioning and leveraged trading in hedge funds percentage (%) is the highest since November 2018 …Regulators are particularly concerned about one strategy called the basis trade, which involves using leverage to profit from the price gap between Treasury futures and the underlying cash market. It has garnered particular attention from federal watchdogs over concerns about a lack of visibility into the amount of risk in the market.
- Reiterating, more earnings are coming around the bend as LPS (loss-per-share) cascaded.
- Up and down market and past cell and gene therapy activity is reflective of investors sentiment – we be happy as November starts but, does it continue this and next week?
- Middle East conflict still weighed on the market as investors assessed the chances of it breaking out into a wider war. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive a global recession, leading investors have warned.
I STILL believe the political aspect of the U.S.’s polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings and rate hike arguments are contributing to the roller coaster ride for share pricing actions.
What’s behind the numbers:
- Market expectations have become more questionable …
- The sector and overall stock market tends to consistently rise and fall over the short-term with alternating volatility and involuntary momentum contraction.
- I remain EXTREMELY cautious as upcoming earnings may have a more significant negative impact on share price due to missed consensus as estimates will lessen valuations.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- I believe … there will be deceleration in sector pricing gains and economic activity for the remaining weeks of 2023.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Wednesday: Cellectis SA (CLLS), Homology Medicine (FIXX) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
- Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – 5x, Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
- Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics CRSP) – 4x, Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
- Tuesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and MiMedx (MDXG)
- Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- Focus continues to be on the quarterly earnings season!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
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