November 30, 2023 7:37am

November is done; take some gains, but stand at “parade rest” makes a lot of sense.

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

 

The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.48% or (+172 points), the S&P is UP +0.21% or (+9 points) as the Nasdaq is UP +0.26% or (+42 points)

U.S. stock futures ticked higher on Thursday morn wrap a winning November.

European markets rose,

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors assessed economic data from the region.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes were mixed on Wednesday … the Dow closed UP +13.57 points or +0.04%, the S&P closed DOWN -4.31 points or -0.09% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -23.27 points or -0.16%

Early Thursday, the OPEC+ meeting of OPEC and key allies such as Russia is expected to extend current production cuts, with some chance that members will expand their reductions.

Economic Data Docket: personal consumption expenditures, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve and weekly jobless claims are also due

  • The PCE price index is expected to rise just 0.1% in October, with the core CPE price index up a modest 0.2%. PCE inflation should cool to 3.1% from September's 3.4%. Core PCE inflation should slow to 3.5% from 3.7%.
  • A stronger-than-expected PCE inflation report could push back Fed rate cut bets.
  • The Commerce Department will release the PCE inflation data is part of the monthly income and spending report at 8:30 a.m. ET. At the same time, the Labor Department will release weekly jobless data. Those figures also will be important. <IBD>

 

Wednesday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “good and bad news shakes the share pricing tree. Some of yesterday’s ups were stripped, and yet the cell and gene therapy sector closed up” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13224

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Financing Note: Verve Therapeutics (VERV) has priced its public offering of 12.5 M shares at $10.00 … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13223

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Q4: November – 11 positive, 1 holiday and 9 negative closes

·         October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

I am passing on forecasting the daily indications; it’s just too jumbled and mixed signals, followed by a weak aftermarket as markets fluctuate toward November’s end … take some gains, but largely standing “pat” makes a lot of sense.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What has changed, just those who are up and down swapping roles …

  • I STILL believe some cell and gene therapy sector upsiders are … overbought.
  • I am STILL waiting for catalysts to justify recent upside appreciation as some news sinks the share pricing other than algorithmic electronic trading!
  • I also DON’T believe totally in the THIS market -- it’s usually a signal to lighten the load of the sector’s upside movers.
  • Being that I have concerns over the resiliency of upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.

 

It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

 

Today’s relevancy from Wednesday’s session:

  • The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.6%, but hit resistance at the 200-day line.
  • U.S. crude oil prices rose 1.9% to $77.86 a barrel.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6.5 basis points to 4.27%, the lowest since Sept. 14. The 10-year yield has tumbled 21 basis points so far this week. The two-year Treasury yield, more closely tied to Fed policy, has plunged 31 basis points this week to 4.645%.
  • A possible Fed shift toward rate cuts is driving yields lower, but more recently concerns about economic growth slowing too much in the months ahead, just Q3's powerful GDP growth.
  • That could be one reason why this week's big drop in Treasury yields isn't pushing up stocks the way they did earlier in the month. The market rally also could be due for a pullback, with various sentiment gauges at or near excessive levels. Lower bond yields may be propping up a tired rally. <IBD>
  • Investors should be very cautious, holding to some positions and building cash if possible!

 

So, it's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • But, don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.