November 30, 2023 4:55pm

November ends with an up session as the cell and gene therapy sector pops following limps ending with a negative close

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After careful examination of the sector and breathe trends, I STILL come away more cautious. Having lived through the rise and multiple declines of “our” universe’s stock price.

We're in a period of sector rotation, and people are trying to figure out what cell and gene therapy sector equities at are going to continue to do well and what are the stocks that are going to suffer.

Investors must be better informed on what fluctuating economics and markets can do to an equity, or what impact indications or expectations can have.

 

The Dow closed UP +520.47 points or +1.47%, the S&P closed UP +17.22 points or +0.38% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -32.27 points or -0.23%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

The stock market showed mixed results on the last day of November … as the Dow popped, the S&P limped while the Nasdaq dived.

The Dow is closing out November with more than an 8% gain, ending a three-month losing streak. The S&P 500 is also up more than 8% in November, while the Nasdaq has advanced roughly 10%. Both averages are tracking for their best monthly performance since July 2022. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were trading about 1% away from their respective 2023 highs. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed inflation is cooling as expected, along with consumer spending. The data seemed to cement expectations that the Fed has completed its rate hiking cycle.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was positive with 21 incliners, 13 decliners and 1 flat at the open, the mid-day continued positive with 22 inclined, 12 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 16 incliners, 18 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  November – 11 positive, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes

·         October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +1.33% and the XBI was up +2.26%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.09 point or -0.69% at 12.89

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 18):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.36 after Wednesday’s -$1.57 after Tuesday’s -$0.95 and Monday’s +$1.64),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.30 after Wednesday’s +$0.18, Tuesday’s +$0.10 and Monday’s -$0.38),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.51 after Wednesday’s -$1.18, Tuesday’s +$0.61 and Monday’s -$0.51),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.26 after Wednesday’s +$0.65, Tuesday’s -$0.15 and Monday’s -$0.53),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.24, Tuesday’s -$0.69 and Monday’s -$0.64),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.13),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.09 after Wednesday’s +0.13 after Tuesday’s +$0.08 and Monday’s +$0.09),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$0.13)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.07),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.07 after Wednesday’s -$0.14 and Tuesday’s +$0.33),

Flat (1):

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.24 after Wednesday’s +$2.65, Tuesday’s +$2.17 and Monday’s -$3.72),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s +$0.67),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.91 after Wednesday’s -$0.61),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.27 after Wednesday’s +$0.31, Tuesday’s -$1.04 and Monday’s +$0.34),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.23 after Wednesday’s +$0.13),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.11 after Wednesday’s -$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.26 and Monday’s +$0.30),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$0.21, Tuesday’s +$0.16 and Monday’s -$0.39),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.09),
  • Verve therapeutics (VERV +$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$0.73, Tuesday’s +$0.37 and Monday’s -$0.56),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.0765),

 

Q4/23 – November

Thursday closed negative with 16 incliners, 18 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 17 incliners, 17 decliners and 1 flat

Monday closed negative with 13 incliners, 22 decliners and 0 flat

Friday closed early and positive with 27 incliners, 7 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday: holiday 

Wednesday closed positive with 20 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Monday closed positive with 30 incliners, 5 decliners and 0 flat

Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 23 incliners, 11 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 30 incliners, 5 decliners and 0 flat

Monday closed negative with 16 incliners, 18 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed negative with 13 incliners, 20 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 23 incliners, 7 decliners and 5 flats

Monday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 23 incliners, 9 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 16 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As November ends, investors should punch out some sector equities or buy up some bottom liners.

  • November also appears set to be the Nasdaq's best month for percentage gains since January
  • Reiterating, “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”

What did I write this a.m.: What has changed, just those who are up and down swapping roles …

  • I STILL believe some cell and gene therapy sector upsiders are … overbought.
  • I am STILL waiting for catalysts to justify recent upside appreciation as some news sinks the share pricing other than algorithmic electronic trading!
  • I also DON’T believe totally in the THIS market -- it’s usually a signal to lighten the load of the sector’s upside movers.
  • Being that I have concerns over the resiliency of upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

What’s behind the numbers:

  • The Nasdaq advanced roughly 10% as November ended with cooling inflation data through the lens of Fed monetary policy officials.
  • Even with November’s gains, the XBI is down more than 8% so far this year.
  • U.S. Treasury yields climbed -- Benchmark 10-year notes rose 5.7 basis points to 4.328%, from 4.271% late on Wednesday. The 30-year bond was last up 4.1 basis points to yield 4.4923%, while the two-year note was rose 4.9 basis points to yield 4.6968%, from 4.648%.
  • U.S. inflation data was in line with economist expectations, traders appeared to have priced in slower inflation

 

Questionable quote, that I had to articulate:

 “What’s driving the market, ultimately, is that shift in monetary policy,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group. “Lower volatility could also push more money into markets as people regrow their portfolios and increase exposure to equities. We think new highs are definitely possible.”

  • I don’t think new highs are just gong to happen without some M&A, new partnering and solid clinical results within 35 covered equities – HWM!

 

It's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

Some good news in a consolidation healthy? AbbVie (ABBV) agrees $10.1 Billion deal to buy ImmunoGen (IMGN)

  • AbbVie has moved to shore up its pipeline following the loss of patent protection for its top-selling drug with a $10.1 billion deal to buy IMGN and its marketed ovarian cancer drug.
  • IMGN shares have nearly doubled since ABBV announced plans to buy the cancer drugmaker for $10.1 billion in cash. ImmunoGen is a leader the field of antibody-drug conjugates and makes the ovarian cancer treatment Elahere.
  • The ABBV and IMGN come-together/deal helped fuel a rally in the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). It is up 14.5% month-to-date, and earlier reached more than 17.5% month to date, which had put it on pace for its best month since November 2020, when the XBI gained 18.12%. <CNBC>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 3x, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP – 3x, Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP0 – 2x, Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
  • Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV) 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.