December 1, 2023 5:28pm

I am STILL waiting for catalysts to justify recent upside appreciation as some news sinks the share pricing other than the push of algorithmic and electronic trading!

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Medicine (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13228 ; The Bottom Line: Even lipstick will NOT help this pig!!

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After careful examination of the sector and breathe trends, I STILL come away more cautious. Having lived through the rise and multiple declines of “our” universe’s stock price.

We're in a period of sector rotation, and people are trying to figure out what cell and gene therapy sector equities at are going to continue to do well and what are the stocks that are going to suffer.

Investors must be better informed on what fluctuating economics and markets can do to an equity, or what impact indications or expectations can have.

 

The Dow closed UP +294.61 points or +0.82%, the S&P closed UP +26.83 points or +0.59% while the Nasdaq closed UP +78.81 points or +0.05%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed positive as December started …

As Fed Chair Powell on Friday pushed back against the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts ahead, saying it is “premature to conclude with confidence” that monetary policy is “sufficiently restrictive.” <CNBC>

The door to another rate hike is left open … as November’s big rally was due in part to traders beginning to believe the Fed was done raising rates and that the central bank may even start cutting them in the first half of next year.

While Powell described cutting interest rates as “premature,” saying more hikes could be on the horizon.

Economic Data Docket: Data released showed that U.S. manufacturing remained at low levels in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which said that its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month. November was the 13th straight month during which the PMI came out below 50, which is an indicator of a slowdown in manufacturing.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line was negative with 10 incliners, 21 decliners and 4 flats at the open, the mid-day flipped positive with 25 inclined, 7 decliners and 3 flats, ending with a positive close of 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was positive with 21 incliners, 13 decliners and 1 flat at the open, the mid-day continued positive with 22 inclined, 12 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 16 incliners, 18 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line was positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat at the open, the mid-day continued positive with 22 inclined, 11 decliners and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line was negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats at the open, the mid-day continued negative with 11 inclined, 24 decliners and 0 flat, ending with a neutral close of 17 incliners, 17 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line was negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat at the open, the mid-day continued negative with 11 declined, 22 incliners and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 13 incliners, 22 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December – 1 positive close

·         November – 11 positive, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes

·         October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.38% and the XBI was up +3.06%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +1.33% and the XBI was up +2.26%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.96% and the XBI was up +1.19%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.30% and the XBI was down -0.19%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.66% and the XBI was down -0.60%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.29 point or -2.24% at 12.63
  • Thursday was down -0.09 point or -0.69% at 12.89
  • Wednesday was up +0.28 point or +2.21% at 12.97
  • Tuesday was down -0.07 point or -0.55% at 12.62
  • Monday was up +0.24 point or +1.93% at 12.70

 

Friday’s Closing Down (3 of 3):

  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.09 after Wednesday’s +0.13 after Tuesday’s +$0.08 and Monday’s +$0.09),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.019),
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH -$0.01),

Flat (2):

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)
  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.16 after Thursday’s +$4.24, Wednesday’s +$2.65, Tuesday’s +$2.17 and Monday’s -$3.72),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.41 after Thursday’s +$1.16, Wednesday’s +$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s +$0.67),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.16),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.92 after Thursday’s -$2.36, Wednesday’s -$1.57 after Tuesday’s -$0.95 and Monday’s +$1.64),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.49 after Thursday’s -$0.51 after Wednesday’s -$1.18, Tuesday’s +$0.61 and Monday’s -$0.51),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.31 after Thursday’s -$0.26, Wednesday’s +$0.65, Tuesday’s -$0.15 and Monday’s -$0.53),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1,21 after Thursday’s +$1.30, Wednesday’s +$0.18, Tuesday’s +$0.10 and Monday’s -$0.38),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.88 after Thursday’s -$0.14, Wednesday’s -$0.24, Tuesday’s -$0.69 and Monday’s -$0.64),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.81 after Thursday’s +$0.10, Wednesday’s +$0.21, Tuesday’s +$0.16 and Monday’s -$0.39),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.80 after Thursday’s +$0.09),

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Friday closed positive with 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I am staying with: “As November ended <and December began>, investors should punch out some sector equities or buy up some bottom liners.

  • Reiterating, “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”

What did I write this a.m.: What has changed, just those who are up and down swapping roles …

  • I STILL believe some cell and gene therapy sector upsiders are … overbought.
  • I also DON’T believe totally in the THIS market -- it’s usually a signal to lighten the load of the sector’s upside movers.
  • Being that I have concerns over the upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

 

What’s behind the numbers:

  • This week, the S&P 500 added 0.77%, while the Dow rallied 2.4%. The Nasdaq advanced 0.38%. It marked the fifth consecutive week of gains for the major averages.
  • Fed Chair Powell acknowledges risks of overtightening
  • Treasury yields fell after Powell said the risks of hiking interest rates too much and slowing the economy more than necessary have become "more balanced" with the risks of not hiking enough to control inflation.
  • ISM shows U.S. manufacturing weakness persists
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell more than 13 basis points to 4.213%.
  • Oil prices extended losses after Thursday's 2% drop, with the market unconvinced that the latest round of OPEC+ production cuts will be able to lift prices from a recent slump.
  • U.S. crude was 1.87% lower at $74.54 per barrel and Brent was at $79.51, down 1.67% on the day.

 

A pharma view: Pfizer (PFE) dips as obesity drug trial dropped; slipping -4.6% as PFE dropped plans to advance a twice-daily version of oral weight-loss drug “danuglipron” into late-stage studies, delaying its entry into the lucrative market.

  • PFE would stop developing the twice-daily version of its experimental weight loss pill after obese patients taking the drug lost weight but had trouble tolerating the drug in a mid-stage clinical study.

 

It's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and more than a bit of portfolio rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 4x, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) -3x and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) -2x
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 3x, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Caribou Biosciences (CRBU), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)
  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP – 3x, Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP0 – 2x, Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
  • Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV) 

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

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