December 6, 2023 7:49pm

Came to visit driving artificial sector move, so what catalysis are striking movement?

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Medicine (OTCQB: HRGN) formerly Biostage (BSTG). Watch on Netflix: “Bad Surgeon, Love under the Knife” the HRGN back story of Dr. Paolo Macchiarini famous for his revolutionary stem cell-infused windpipe transplants. Also answers the question of WHY Biostage (BSTG) and its former Chairman, CEO and current HRGN board member David Green paid $5 million dollars to a VICTIM’s family. The Bottom Line: Even lipstick will NOT help this pig!  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13228

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

Never leave an investor uninformed!

After careful examination of the sector and breathe trends, I STILL come away more cautious. Having lived through the rise and multiple declines of “our” universe’s stock price.

Investors must be better informed on what fluctuating economics and markets can do to an equity, or what impact indications or expectations can have.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -70.13 points or -0.19%, the S&P closed DOWN -17.84 points or -0.39% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -83.20 points or -0.58%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes flopped down on Wednesday as further signs of a cooling jobs market reinforced bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates early next year, although weakness in energy shares kept a lid on gains.

Indexes relinquished earlier advances, with the Dow at one up nearly 170 points at its session high.

Wednesday marked the third straight losing session for the Dow and S&P 500. Those declines raised questions around whether the late 2023 rally was taking a pause or if the market had run up too far, too fast. Still, the three major indexes remain poised to finish the fourth quarter and calendar year higher. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: the ADP gauge on private payrolls missed expectations, finding that 103,000 jobs were added in November. ADP shows annual wage growth for workers changing jobs fell to 8.3% in November, the slowest pace of growth since June 2021.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line was positive with 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats at the open, the mid-day stayed positive with 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December – 1 negative and 3 positive closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.78% and the XBI was up +0.94%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was up +0.12 point or +0.93% at 12.97

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 14):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.47 after Tuesday’s -$0.93 after Monday’s +$0.41),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.90 after Tuesday’s +$0.79 after Monday’s +$1.09),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.89 after Tuesday’s +$0.59 after Monday’s +$0.70)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDM -$0.33 after Tuesday’s +$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.52),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.24 after Tuesday’s -$0.58 after Monday’s +$0.62),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.10),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.07 after Tuesday’s $0.00),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$1.46 after Monday’s -$0.17),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.04),
  • Graphite (GRPH -$0.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.02)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 21):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.65 after Tuesday’s -$2.50 after Monday’s +$1.36),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.44),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$0.91 after Monday’s +$2.86
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$0.22)
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.50),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.42 after Tuesday’s -$1.31 after Monday’s -$0.01
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.36)
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$o.33),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.32 after Tuesday’s -$0.37 after Monday’s -$0.04),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN +$0.32)? who is buying this pig?

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Wednesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I am sticking to/with - November euphoria gives way to December doubts!

  • “I remain a skeptic, thus maintaining; investors should consider getting defensive” … if dead wood or too struggling share pricings are in the portfolio; especially those desperately needing a financing, lacking a partner, restructuring and needing a financing or just wallowing in the market
  • And from Monday: “As November ended <and December began>, investors should punch out some sector equities or buy up some bottom liners.
  • Reiterating, “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • What did I write last night.: what are we riding the merry-go-round.
  • What has changed, just those who are up and down swapping roles …
  • I STILL believe some cell and gene therapy sector upsiders are … overbought.
  • I also DON’T TRUST totally in the THIS market -- it’s usually a signal to lighten the load of the sector’s upside movers.
  • Being that I have concerns over the upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.

 

It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

 

What’s behind the numbers:

  • Indexes opened with decent gains Wednesday, but reversed lower by the close. Treasury yields and crude oil continued to tumble amid concerns that the economy is slowing too quickly.
  • The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell 5 basis points to 4.119% after hitting a fresh three-month low of 4.106%, suggesting the bond market is anticipating a weak jobs report on Friday.
  • The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 3 basis point to 4.603%. <Reuters>
  • The main event of the week will be November's non-farm payrolls report, due on Friday, which will give investors more clarity about the state of the labor market and the outlook for interest rates.
  • Notice I did NOT advocate this am, having the patience to hold tight is important for investors, even active traders.

It's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio December tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 3x, Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x, and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) -2x and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) – 2x and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) -2x
  • Tuesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Monday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.