December 11, 2023 4:44pm

The after effects of vacillating sentiment, conflicting news response or the lack there of, CPI, Fed, tax selling, caution and gene therapy pricing treatment and accessibility hurdles followed by sector financings

News: Agenus (AGEN -$0.066) has triggered the 2nd development milestone payment of a $25 million cash payment under its global licensing agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) for BMS-986442, an Fc-enhanced bispecific TIGIT antibody with the dosing of the first patient in the P2 dose expansion portion of the ongoing CA115-001 clinical trial. Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.60) new safety and efficacy data in 17 patients treated with EDIT-301, now known as renizgamglogene autogedtemcel (reni-cel), in the RUBY trial for severe sickle cell disease (SCD) and in the EdiTHAL trial for transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT).

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits and 1 Miss

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Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it

 

The Dow closed UP +157.06 points or +0.0.43%, the S&P closed UP +18.07 points or +0.39% while the Nasdaq closed UP +28.51 points or +0.20%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes were finicky and closed positive …

This week, investors are looking ahead to key inflation data, which could affect market movements and rate policy from the Fed. The central bank begins its two-day meeting Tuesday. November’s consumer price index reading is also due Tuesday, while the producer price index is set for release on Wednesday. The forthcoming slate of economic data are some of the final obstacles left for markets to remain strong into the end of 2023.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Monday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 4 incliners, 28 decliners and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day with 12 declined, 23 incliners and 0 flat, ending with a negative close of 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.93), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.35), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.88), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.21), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.49), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$7.01)> 1 Miss < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.67)>

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December – 3 negative and 4 positive closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.72% and the XBI was down -0.61%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.28 point or +2.27% at 12.63

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 21):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.26 after Friday’s -$5.67
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDM -$0.93 after Friday’s -$0.77),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.67 after Friday’s -$0.76),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.60),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.39 after Friday’s +$0.54),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.38),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.35),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.20),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.19 after Friday’s -$1.02),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN -$0.18 after Friday’s +$0.05)? Who would buy this pig?

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 13):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$7.01 after Friday’s +$0.20)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.88 after Friday’s -$7.22),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.49 after Friday’s -$0.78),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.35),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.25 after Friday’s -$2.35
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.21 after Friday’s -$1.95),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.16 after Friday’s -$0.96),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.07),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.04),
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE +$0.04),

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Monday (12/11) closed negative with 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating … “I remain a skeptic, as electronic trading remains the impetus to, I believe a cell and gene therapy sector’s artificial high” … as proven today yet again!

  • I warned that sector portfolios containing cell and gene therapy sector equities should consider getting defensive” … if dead wood or too struggling share pricings are in the portfolio; especially those desperately needing a financing, lacking a partner, restructuring and needing a financing or just wallowing in the market …
  • … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • Being that I have concerns over the upside moves that usually end in downward sells while the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

 

Stocks could test all-time highs this week, or give back a big chunk of their late-autumn rally, amid a hectic stretch of data reports and central-bank rate decisions over the next five days. <The Street>

 

What’s behind the numbers:

  • A cautious mood comes as investors brace for two events that could set the tone for stocks going into 2024: November's reading on consumer inflation and the Fed's interest rate decision.
  • The Nasdaq is up 37.6% for the year and closed at the highest levels since January on Friday.
  • A $37 billion auction of 10-year notes, a re-opening of last month's sale, drew solid overall bidding interest and solid participation from foreign buyers, according to preliminary data.
  • Benchmark 10-year notes were last seen trading at 4.278%, little-changed from pre-auction levels, while 2-year notes eased to 4.752%

Pharma News: Eli Lily (LLY) shares slumped nearly 4% in mi-day trading after data from a major clinical trial of Zepbound showed that patients regained a substantial amount of weight once they stopped taking daily injections of the its anti-obesity drug.

It's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio December tax selling and a bit of rebalancing … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Intellia therapeutics (NTLA)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.