December 14, 2023 4:46pm

Playing among the stars means a portfolio feels dazzled before it falls out of love or sentiment

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hits and 1 Miss

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: WHY do I keep analyzing Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) formerly, Biostage (BSTG): I WAS there to experience the lack of corporate and investor prerogatives, saw the decay of transparency and more; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response! Have you notice how it barely trades unless volume is “pumped”; is it by DST Capital, run by the president of HRGN, Hong Yu and Mrs. Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass – funded by Lui Dong Hai, chairman of Dixintong Technology Group (D. Phone, the largest smartphone retailer in China) the husband of Mrs. bin Zhao? Still labeled a … Going Concern… flailing for the lack of U.S. investors and a VERY short “runway” until Q4/2023’s end. And the back story to Netflix: “Bad Surgeon, Love under the Knife”.

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it

 

The Dow closed UP +158.11 points or +0.43%, the S&P closed UP +12.46 points or +0.26% while the Nasdaq closed UP +27.59 points or +0.19%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rally continues, Thursday a day after closing above 37,000 for the first time ever as the 10-year Treasury tumbled below 4% and a surprise gain in retail sales gave investors further confidence 2024 would bring a soft economic landing.

Economic Data Docket: Retail sales increased 0.3% in November, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, in the latest sign that consumer spending remains strong as the holiday shopping season continues. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast a decrease of 0.1%.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 27 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day with 26 declined, 9 incliners and 0 flat, ending with a positive close of 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.35), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.70), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.47), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.16), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.51), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.51), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.47)> 1 Miss < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.96)  

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December – 4 negative and 6 positive closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +1.03% and the XBI was up +1.79%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.27 point or +2.21% at 12.46

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 10):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.35),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.14 after Wednesday’s +$1.55 and Tuesday’s -$0.22),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.11),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.0626),
  • Adverum, Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.032),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0212),
  • Graphite (GRPH -$0.02),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0166),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.01),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (AGMO -$0.0078),

Flat (1):

  • Generation Bio (GBIO)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 24):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.96 after Wednesday’s +$4.64, Tuesday’s +$2.96 and Monday’s +$0.88),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.51 after Wednesday’s +$2.24, Tuesday’s -$0.61 and Monday’s +$0.25
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.51 after Wednesday’s +$3.31, Tuesday’s -$2.16 and Monday’s -$4.26
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.50 after Wednesday’s +$1.43),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.47 after Wednesday’s +$2.24, Tuesday’s -$0.20 and Monday’s -$0.67),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.16 after Wednesday’s +$1.32, Tuesday’s +$2.81 and Monday’s +$0.16),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.01 after Wednesday’s +$1.19, Tuesday’s -$0.29 after Monday’s -$0.38),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.70 after Wednesday’s +$1.19, Tuesday’s -$0.17 and Monday’s -$0.39),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.69 after Wednesday’s -$0.33, Tuesday’s +$0.28 after Monday’s +$0.49),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.67),

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Thursday closed positive with 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: speculation has it … the market and the cell and gene therapy sector has run too far, too fast!

  • Again, and again – I say what changes … as I reiterate … “I remain a skeptic, as electronic trading remains the impetus to, I believe a cell and gene therapy sector’s artificial high” … as proven today yet again!
  • I warned that sector portfolios containing cell and gene therapy sector equities should consider getting defensive” … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”

Thursday’s backdrop:

  • The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped below 4% to 3.94% for the first time since August as traders mounted bets on rate cuts for 2024.

 

I think the magnitude of the market’s upside and cell and gene therapy sector’s response is exaggerated. <Me

An additional quote, I believe is important from Art Cashin, a hero of mine with 60 years of industry experience, Cashin, head of floor trading for UBS:

“High valuations, coupled with a fear-of-missing-out mentality, could be a near-term risk for the market. “The fear of missing out, the idea that the train is leaving the station … so you begin to ignore multiples and you pay up and that’s where bubbles come from”. That is a risk, so we’ve got to see how the money flows go.”

 

It's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio December tax selling and a bit of rebalancing … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) -4x, Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRSPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) -3x, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) -2x, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) -2x and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Wednesday: Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) -2x, Beam therapeutics (BEAM) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.