December 18, 2023 5:13pm

We have to play the cards dealt

News: bluebird bio (BLUE closed down -$0.22 (-6.73%) to $3.50 with a -$0.33 (-10.82%) aftermarket indication, so far) proposes $150 million share offering with Goldman Sachs & Co. and J.P. Morgan Securities are acting as joint book running managers for the offering. Raymond James is acting as co-manager for the offering. BLUE's victory with getting its SCD therapy, Lyfgenia (priced at $3.1 million per dose and safety risks) approved by the FDA is, unfortunately more bitter than sweet. A whole lot of shares and desperate move; investors close your wallet!

Pre-open Indications: 1 Hits and 4 Miss

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Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it

 

The Dow closed UP +0.86 points or +0.00%, the S&P closed UP +21.37 points or +0.45% while the Nasdaq closed UP +90.89 points or +0.61%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes achieved a barely upside move … still, there are some concerns ahead for investors as they turn to a new year.

Economic Data Docket: The Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders rose to 37 for December, just above the Econoday estimate. That's up from November's 34 reading.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Monday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 9 incliners, 25 decliners and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day with 10 declined, 24 incliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 11 incliners, 24 decliners and 0 flat 

 

Pre-open Indications: 1 Hit < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.99)> 4 Miss < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.97), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.68), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.43), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.51)>

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December – 6 negative and 6 positive closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.72% and the XBI was down -1.57%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.28 point or +2.28% at 12.56

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 24):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.53 after Friday’s -$0.28),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.97 after Friday’s -$1.37
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.68 after Friday’s -$0.86
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.51 after Friday’s +$0.44),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.45 after Friday’s -$0.86),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.44 after Friday’s +$0.09).
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.43 after Friday’s -$1.08),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.34 after Friday’s -$0.46),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.32 after Monday’s +$4.11),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.31 after Friday’s +$0.06),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.31 after Friday’s +$0.17),

Monday’s Closing Up (11 of 11):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.01),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.99 after Friday’s -$1.24),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.13),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.11 after Friday’s +$0.14),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.08 after Friday’s -$0.44),
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH +$0.08),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.18),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.03),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.0263),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN +$0.01) DST Capital buying its own stock after a "questionable" press release?
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.0034)

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Monday (12/18) closed negative with 11 incliners, 24 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I wrote it was coming – a downdraft that Friday can be laid at the feet of … triple witching’ and Monday was consequences’ day!

  • Right after as “uncle algo(rithms) and his electronic dwarfs came again to speculate in … the market and the cell and gene therapy sector that had run too far, too fast!
  • I warned that sector portfolios containing cell and gene therapy sector equities should consider getting defensive” … “Investors NEED to start NOW formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”

Monday’s backdrop:

  • The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ticked higher, at 3.96% Monday morning. Last week, the benchmark tumbled to 3.92%, its lowest level since late July.

 

My only quote is " I will be leaving early this week to enjoy the holiday after a year of working 6, sometimes 7 days a week which usually start at 4 a.m. and end at who knows what hour." <Me>

 

It's time to think ahead to December' end and 2024's beginning. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio December tax selling and a bit of rebalancing … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.