December 20, 2023 8:22am

Until they don’t, remember hope is not a good strategy…

After careful examination of the sector and breathe trends, I have come away more cautious. Having lived through the rise and multiple declines of “our” universe’s stock price, investors must be better informed on what fluctuating markets can do to an equity, or what impact indications or expectations can have.

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight action in a.m. futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

One of my usual questions, are we facing a prisoner’s dilemma - a situation wherein algorithms acting with electronic trading interest do not achieve a continued optimal outcome for this sectors investor group.

 

The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.20% or (-75 points), the S&P is DOWN -0.22% or (10 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.28% or (-47 points)

Stock futures turned lower Wednesday,

European markets were mixed,

Asia Pacific markets rose.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes achieved an upside move … all three major averages are headed for a winning December and 2023 as stocks build on the recent rally and investors look forward to rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the new year.

The Nasdaq jumped 0.66% to close above the 15,000 level for the first time since 2022

Economic Data Docket: Mortgage refinancings and applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association. If there an uptick in housing, you should start to see it here.

 

Tuesday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “volatility is its middle name even as news doesn’t help. Cell and gene therapy lives up with an unpredictability signature.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13254

RegMed Investors (RMi): bluebird bio (BLUE) proposes $150 million stock offering … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13252   

 

Q4:  December – 7 positive and 6 negative closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

I am passing on forecasting the daily indications; it’s just mixed signals, followed by a weak aftermarket as markets follow November’s end … take gains as to those who WILL seek to recapitalize cash positions by discounted stock and pricing offerings!

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I am getting ready to leave for the holiday, Christmas … Do not chase momentum after dramatic upside/downside equities, even as the market has run since late October; the risks of hiccups are rising!

  • Again, and again – I say what changes … as I reiterate … “I remain a skeptic, as electronic trading remains the impetus to, I believe a cell and gene therapy sector’s artificial high” … as proven today yet again!

 

 “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!” If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

It’s up to you to decide as … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.” Tuesday post happening:

  • Broad-based gains boosted all three major U.S. stock indexes and nudged the S&P 500 to within 1 percentage point of its all-time closing high reached in January 2022. If the benchmark index closes above that level, that would confirm it has been in a bull market since bottoming in October 2022. <Reuters>
  • Small-caps have had a strong run in December; the Russell 2000 led gainers, rising 1.9%. The index has surged over 11.7% in December so far.

Wonder why?

  • The gene editing company, Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP)Medical Chief Morrow to Resign - the resignation wasn’t the result of any disagreement with the company??

It's time to think ahead to December's end and 2024's Q1. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • Reiterating, “There are signs of slowing in the U.S. economy. Layoff news has become more frequent, especially in technology, and so have business failures. The commercial and residential real estate markets have been weak all year. The question is if the real estate issues can damage the banking system, as in 2008, and derail the economy.” <The Street>
  • One can also never discount geopolitical stresses.
  • Don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.