January 3, 2024 4:47pm
Skimming most cell and gene therapy sector upsides although Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) climbs after being sold through yesterday (closed +$0.56 after being scalped from +$1.90) to grow today +$1.77 or +19.67%)
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Pre-open Indication Results: 1 Hit and 1 Miss
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With no sigh of relief, I try to answer or qualify one question, in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money
Ask yourself, do you know why you own certain equities?
Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -284.85 points or -0.76%, the S&P closed DOWN -38.02 points or -0.80% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -173.73 points or -1.18%
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell on Wednesday after a Tuesday closed mixed to starting the year.
- Uncertainty surrounds the Fed … which might begin cutting rates (I have doubts) as investors seem to curbed their enthusiasm.
- The Nasdaq is coming off its worst day since October as algos and electronic trading not investors are trading 2023’s winners.
- Enthusiasm is decreasing, as the economy is still on shaky ground and remaining uncertainty around when the Fed cuts rates or not, investors seem to have curbed their enthusiasm.
Economic Data Docket: Fed officials at their meeting in mid-December said that it was possible that the economy could evolve in a manner that would make further rate hikes appropriate, the minutes portray a cautious Fed, even though almost all of the top officials had penciled in some easing in 2024 in their forecasts.
- The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed employment listings at 8.79 million, about in line with the Dow Jones estimate for 8.8 million. Layoffs and hiring totals moved lower.
- On the manufacturing side, the ISM Manufacturing report registered a 47.4 reading for December, just above the 47.2 estimate and better than the 46.7 in November. The number represents the percentage of businesses reporting expansion for the month, so anything below 50 represents contraction.
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
Pre-open Indications: 1 Hit < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.50)> and 1 Miss < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.33)>
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:
Q1/24: 1 holiday, 1 negative and 1 positive closes
Q4:
- 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
- November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
- October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.56% and the XBI was down -2.25%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was up +0.84 point or +5.36% at 14.04
Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 29):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.29 after Tuesday’s +$3.52 and Monday’s holiday),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.50 after Tuesday’s +$3.46 and Monday’s holiday),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.33 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s holiday),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.59 after Tuesday’s +$0.19 and Monday’s holiday),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$ after Tuesday’s +$0.33 and Monday’s holiday),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.04 and Monday’s holiday),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.01 after Tuesday’s -$1.33 and Tuesday’s -$0.73 and Monday's holiday),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.00)
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.81 after Tuesday’s +$0.81 and Monday's holiday),
Wednesday’s Closing Up (6 of 6):
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.77 after Tuesday’s +$0.56),
- Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN +$0.24 after Tuesday’s -$0.48)
- Prime Medine (PRME +$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 and Monday’s holiday)
- Graphite Bio (RRPH +$0.02),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0115),
- Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.21),
Q1/24 – January
- Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
- (1/2) Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: as I had written this a.m., “12/29/23 ended with my message of: “Looking toward 2024 with one word – recalibration i.e., a change in the way you do or think about something – markets and the cell and gene therapy sector.”
- We are back on the merry-go-round or did we ever get off as the music swayed.
Reiterating, “There could be some wobbles in early January, as volume returns and some tax selling takes place. So, investors may want to see how that shakes out. But they should be looking for new buying opportunities, and reviewing past trades.”
- “News, financings, Q4 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) and “runways” will be the under-current or headwind for January through March 2024. Pricing for gene therapies will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!” <me>
A Grab Bag of Activity:
Homology Medicine (FIXX) received notification from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC on December 29, 2023 indicating that, for the last thirty (30) consecutive business days, the bid price for its common stock had closed below the minimum $1.00 per share requirement for continued listing on the Nasdaq Global Select Market (Nasdaq Listing Rule 5450(a)(1)).
Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) out of many a flat offset by down sessions – HRGN pops +$0.24 with 1935 shares traded??? DST Capital, its in-house buyer???
Wednesday’s backdrop:
- Short-term corrections are nothing out of the ordinary in the cell and gene therapy sector that’s coming off of fresh highs and entering Q4 and year-end earnings’ season, noting that the near-term setup (3 month) looks negative.
- The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ticked back above 4% on Wednesday, reversing a downtrend seen toward the end of 2023.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Wednesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
- Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
- Monday; Holiday
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 2x and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
- Tuesday: MiMedx (MDXG), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
- Monday: holiday
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
