January 12, 2024 5:07pm

As momentum rocks and then rolls-over in the cell and gene therapy fragmented sector

Join me … in the NO spin zone.

Pre-open Indication: 6 Hits and 1 Miss

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.

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Week in Review

With a sigh of relief today, I answer or qualify equity’s thrown dice, in which company should investors put or keep in their portfolio for the near and long term ...

 

As a quantamental “plotter” which equates to being a quantitative analyst straddling fundamental stock picking to produce better results for investors. The term “quantamental,” blends the two styles setting forth my difference retail, trading and multiple investor categories.

The RegMed sector suffers the tourist routine … most traders hear a piece of news, contemplate a pumping to buy and a dumping to sell.  These same buyers/sellers can also be very fickle as their purchasing habits are often based on emotion, not sound investment strategies.

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -122.09 points or -0.32%, the S&P closed UP +3.60 points or +0.08% while the Nasdaq closed UP +2.58 points or +0.02%

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +12.72 points or +0.03%, the S&P closed DOWN -3.18 points or -0.07% while the Nasdaq closed barely UP +0.54 points or +0.00%

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +170.57 points or +0.45%, the S&P closed UP +26.95 points or +0.57% while the Nasdaq closed UP +111.94 points or +0.75%

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -157.85 points or -0.42%, the S&P closed DOWN -0.15 points or -7.04% while the Nasdaq closed UP +13.94 points or +0.09%

Monday: The Dow closed UP +216.90 points or +0.58%, the S&P closed UP +66.30 points or +1.41% while the Nasdaq closed UP +319.70 points or +2.20%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed following sliced CPI and diced PPI economic data.

For the week, the Dow is up +0.03%, the S&P +1.8% and the Nasdaq +3%.

Monday of next week, the market will be closed in observance of a Martin Luther King holiday.

  • In the median year between 1998 and 2023, the S&P 500 lost about 0.3% in the four-day trading week after the holiday, Bespoke data shows. The S&P 500 has finished the week up just 38% of the time.

Economic Data Docket: Wholesale prices unexpectedly declining by 0.1% in December. The data follows the more widely followed consumer prices data Thursday, which came in modestly hotter than economists had forecasted, with prices up 0.3% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago.

  • PPI, data that tracks selling prices received by domestic producers.

 

Pre-open Indications 6 Hits < Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.13), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.48), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.48), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.01), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.34), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE $0.45)> 1 Miss < Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.16)>

 

52-week low:

Mesoblast (MESO) drops -$0.14 to $1.86 after a 1 for 2 split.

  • Mesoblast Limited (MESO and ASX: MSB), who have seen the share price tank a massive 89% over a 3-year period. The share price down 68% in a year. Furthermore, it's down 21% in about a quarter.

 

Friday’s Pre-Open: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “PPI data ends the week.  It’s also about pops and drops in “my” universe of cell and gene therapy sector.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13284

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 31 incliners, 2 decliners and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 3 incliners, 28 decliners and 4 flats, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 12 incliners, 22 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 14 incliners, 21 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 14 incliners, 18 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 14 incliners, 20 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: 1 holiday, 6 negative and 3 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.18% and the XBI was down -0.10%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.78% and the XBI was down -2.23%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.71% and the XBI was down -1.14%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.32% and the XBI was up +0.19%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +2.40% and the XBI was up +4.61%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.16 point or +1.29% at 12.60
  • Thursday was down -0.23 point or -1.81% at 12.46
  • Wednesday was down -0.05 point or -0.39% at 12.71
  • Tuesday was down -0.32 point or -2.45% at 12.76
  • Monday was down -0.31 point or -2.32% at 13.03

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 21):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.69 after Thursday’s -$1.53, Wednesday’s -$1.59, Tuesday’s +$1.37 and Monday’s +$7.45
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.59 after Thursday’s +$1.50 and Wednesday’s +$0.71),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.48 after Thursday’s -$0.65, Wednesday’s -$0.88, Tuesday’s +$0.10 and Monday’s +$1.79),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.48 after Thursday’s -$0.73 after Wednesday’s -$0.41 after Tuesday’s -$0.78 after Monday’s +$1.44),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.45 after Thursday’s -$1.01, Wednesday’s -$1.19, Tuesday’s -$1.43 after Monday’s +$2.18
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.34 after Thursday’s +$1.49, Wednesday’s -$0.97, Tuesday’s +$1.27 and Monday’s +$3.63
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.24 after Thursday’s -$0.78),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.16 after Thursday’s -$0.53 and Wednesday’s -$0.33),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.14)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.14 after Thursday’s -$0.41, Wednesday’s -$0.46 and Tuesday’s -$0.19),

Flat (1):

  • MiMedx (MDXG $0.00 after Thursday’s +$0.07 after Tuesday’s -$0.19),

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 13):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.98 after Thursday’s -$1.02, Wednesday’s +$0.21, Tuesday’s -$2.33 and Monday’s +$2.34
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.85 after Thursday’s +$0.06),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.56 after Thursday’s -$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$0.20),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.21 after Thursday’s +$0.21 and Wednesday’s -$0.27),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.13 after Thursday’s -$0.66, Wednesday’s +$0.22 and Tuesday’s $0.00)
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.12),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.10 after Thursday’s +$0.16 and Tuesday’s +$0.26),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.07),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.06),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.04),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.0108),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.01),
  • Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0089)

 

Q1/24 – January

  • Friday closed negative with 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 14 incliners, 21 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliners, 18 decliners and 3 flats
  • (1/8) Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the cell and gene therapy sector showed another touch of weakness on Friday, Thursday and Wednesday after Tuesday’s decline and Monday’s positive close.

  • … Back from the good old days of JPM Healthcare conference boosting appeal to cell and gene therapy companies.
  • As the Nasdaq barely pushed the needle on Friday, following Thursday flat 0.00% after gaining +0.75% on Wednesday after Tuesday’s gain of +0.09% post Monday’s +2%.

 

Some News from the JPM Healthcare:  Nothing “leaks” for my coverage “unit”

  • Cell/gene therapy enthusiasm has cooled. There's a wariness, maybe even anxiety, regarding the financials (read: contracting, coverage, costs) and how to scale manufacturing operations and treatment delivery effectively, especially as the field grows to treat disorders outside rare and ultra-rare. <from a viewer, not an attendant, lost name, rings true>

 

But remember, “News, financings, Q4 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) and “runways” will be the under-current or headwind for January through March 2024. Pricing for gene therapies will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!” <me>

 

Today’s Actions:

  • indexes were subdued after giving up early gains on end of week Friday,
  • US producer prices unexpectedly fall in December
  • Affecting the 10-year Treasury yield which went down to 3.92%
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 index succumbed to the larger trends and erased its earlier gains.
  • Volume was lower and unchanged on the Nasdaq compared with the same time on Thursday.
  • Breadth deteriorated at midday and continued to show weakness.
  • Decliners beat advancers by a small margin in the cell and gene therapy sector and on the Nasdaq.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday:  Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Generation Bio (GBIO) and Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)
  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY),
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 3x, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Beam therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Homology Medicine (FIXX) and Agenus (AGEN)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.