January 18, 2024 5:13pm

How low will it continue to go after 9 negative and 3 positive closes so far in January 2024 as sentiment continues to shrink

”As I stated this a.m., “I’d be BUYING some dips and then slip-away before earnings estimate/consensus debacles"

Pre-open Indication: 4 Hits and 2 Miss 

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With NO sigh of relief, I answer or qualify equity’s thrown dice, in which company should investors put or keep in their portfolio for the near and long term

Join me … in the NO spin zone. If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +201.94 points or +0.54%, the S&P closed UP +41.73 points or +0.88% while the Nasdaq closed UP +200.03 points or +1.35%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed positive, as benchmark Treasury yields moved higher after robust U.S. labor market data weakened bets that the Fed would begin lowering its key policy rate as early as March.

  • The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.14% as fresh jobs data indicated ongoing tightness in the labor market.

Economic Data Docket: initial claims for unemployment benefits slid to their lowest level since Sept. 2022, casting further doubt as to whether the U.S. central bank will cut its Fed funds target rate at the conclusion of its March policy meeting.

  • Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, fell 8.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.027 million units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said in a separate report. Wet weather last month likely contributed to the plunge in homebuilding. Single-family starts increased 15.8% on a year-on-year basis as a shortage of previously owned houses for sale fuels demand for new construction. Permits for future construction of single-family homes increased 1.7% to a pace of 994,000 units last month, the highest level since May 2022.

 

Pre-open Indications 4 Hits < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.60), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.30), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.64), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.93)> 2 Miss < REGENXBIO (RGNX -$0.39), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.06)>  

 

Wednesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the hits just kept on coming. Downslides are set-ups for potential opportunities (Q1/24: 2 holidays, 8 negative and 3 positive closes); I’d be BUYING some dips and then slip-away before earnings estimate/consensus debacles.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13290  

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Lines:

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: 2 holiday, 9 negative and 3 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.35% and the XBI was down -1.45%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.66 point or -4.;46% at 14.13

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 25):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.60 after Wednesday’s +$1.06 after Tuesday’s -$5.90
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.93 after Wednesday’s +$0.55),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.67 after Wednesday’s -$0.97 after Tuesday’s -$0.50),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.64 after Wednesday’s +$0.26 after Tuesday’s -$2.51),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.55 after Wednesday’s +$0.06 after Tuesday’s +$0.29),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$1.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.91),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.41),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.39 after Wednesday’s -$1.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.28 after Wednesday’s -$0.56 after Tuesday’s -$1.70
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.24 after Wednesday’s -$0.42),

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 10):

  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.33 after Wednesday’s -$1.37 after Tuesday’s +$0.96),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.33),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.30 after Wednesday’s -$1.14 after Tuesday’s -$2.41
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.30 after Wednesday’s -$0.79 after Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.18),
  • Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN +$0.12),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$2.57 after Tuesday’s -$0.82),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.10),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0495),
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH +$0.02),

 

Q1/24 – January

  • Thursday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating again, the cell and gene therapy sector has “recalibrated” its expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.

  • The cell and gene therapy sector showed yet another “touch” of weakness on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday following Monday’s holiday, the previous Friday’s negative close, Thursday’s positive close following Wednesday’s negative close.

 

Sentiment continues to slip as “our” universe is about the kick-off earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) season as estimates and consensus usually get beaten. Remember, “Pricing for gene therapies medications will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!” <me>

 

Today’s non-attractives to “our” universe:

  • Fears of escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, helped keep upward pressure on Treasury yields.
  • Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 4/32 in price to yield 4.119%, from 4.104% late on Wednesday.
  • The 30-year bond last fell 16/32 in price to yield 4.3402%, from 4.312% late on Wednesday.

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Monday was a market holiday

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 2x and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday was a market holiday

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.