January 26, 2024 8:14am
Risk is a four letter swear word
Reduce overall exposure slightly, a pre-emptive measure before potential technical headwinds and earnings uncertainty
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What RMi provides is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence. Join me … in the NO spin zone!
Never leave an investor uninformed!
Remember that overnight action in a.m. futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.
I make a commitment to provide need-to-know “facts in evidence” as an equity’s volatility is one tactical signal for stocks. My thesis is important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progression.
I also follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old w ords when short are best of all.”
Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.02% or (-9 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.06% or (-3 points) as the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.34% or (-60 points)
Stock futures fell Friday,
European markets were higher Friday as investors digest the European Central Bank’s latest decision,
Asia-Pacific markets mostly declined.
We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Thursday, indexes closed positive as the Dow closed UP +242.74 points or +0.64%, the S&P closed UP +25.61 points +0.53% while the Nasdaq closed UP +28.58 points or +0.18%
This week so far, the S&P 500 is up +1.1%, the Dow has added +0.5% while the Nasdaq jumped +1.3%.
Economic Data Docket: Rate of price increases cooled as 2023 came to a close…
- The Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index for December, an important gauge for the Fed, increased 0.2% on the month and was up 2.9% on a yearly basis, excluding food and energy. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.2% and 3%.
- On a monthly basis, core inflation increased from 0.1% in November. However, the annual rate declined from 3.2%. Including volatile food and energy costs, headline inflation also rose 0.2% for the month and held steady at 2.6% annually.
- As inflation drifted closer to the Fed’s target, consumer spending increased 0.7%, stronger than the 0.5% estimate. Personal income growth edged lower to 0.3%, in line with the forecast.
Q1/24: 2 holidays, 9 negative and 7 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
I am passing on forecasting the daily indications – the aftermarket is waiting for the all clear alarm, on inflation-oriented PCE “numbers” … it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns …
The BOTTOM LINE: What really changes … “On the plus side, even just a few days of sideways action or a mild pullback would let key moving averages catch up.” <IBD>
- Reiterating, “inflation “numbers” effect the condition of small-cap equities as buying opportunities only appear when the market is on a short-term upswing, just waiting for those sector equities to fall back.
Coming attractions …Q4 and FY23 reporting season and “runways” will get measured as consensus and estimates will get missed!
- For the next few weeks, if you're buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship even as … Q4 and FY23 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) are due even though some highlights were delivered to facilitate JPM presentations – there are consensus and beaten estimates to be reckoned!
Friday, the reasons to the downside
- Thursday, the cell and gene therapy sector wavered again intraday, but closed positive.
- Market breadth was strong while volume was weak as the small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 0.7%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.13%, just below the 50-day line.
- Pricing for gene therapies will continue to dominate share ascensions and downfalls!
It's also a good idea to take some profits, especially if you didn't do so in past sessions.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.