January 29, 2024 7:41am

Big pharma patent cliffs (refers to when a company’s patents for one or more leading branded products expire, which opens the door for competitors to sell copycats of those drugs, often at a lower price) raises its ugly head

Pre-open indications: 4 Positive and 1 Negative Indications

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What RMi provides is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence. Join me … in the NO spin zone!

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight action in a.m. futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

I also follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.02% or (-8 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.08% or (+3 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.24% or (+42 points)

U.S. stock futures were mixed and a little positive Monday

European stock markets had a mixed start to the week,

Asia Pacific markets mostly rose.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday indexes closed mixed as the Dow closed UP +60.30 points or +0.16%, the S&P closed DOWN -3.19 points -0.07% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -55.13 points or -0.36%

Last week, the Dow gained +0.07%, while the Nasdaq advanced +0.09% and S&P popped +1.1%

Economic Data Docket: On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision. Investors expect the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Investors will be closely watching for any commentary during Fed Chair Powell's conference on Wednesday about when the Fed may begin cutting rates.

  • On Friday, the January jobs report is set for release where economists expect a modest tick down in job additions while the unemployment rate is projected to remain flat at 3.7%.

 

Q1/24: 2 holidays, 10 negative and 7 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday’s, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$4.31 and Thursday’s -$1.27 with a positive +$0.38 or +0.21% pre-open indication.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM closed down -$0.63 after Thursday’s +$0.16 with a positive +$1.66 or +6.83% pre-open indication.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.85 after Thursday’s -$0.14 and Wednesday’s -$3.38 with a positive +$0.34 or +0.56% pre-open indication.

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.31 after Thursday’s +0.39 and Wednesday’s -$0.71 with a positive +$1.20 or +10.40% pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday’s, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$0.28 after Thursday’s +$1.54 and Wednesday’s -$0.87 with a negative -$0.17 or -0.38% pre-open indication

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What really changes … “On the plus side, even just a few days of sideways action or a mild pullback would let the cell and gene therapy sector catch on and I didn’t say totally catch- up.”

  • Last week in the “numbers”, the IBB and XBI closed up 3x and down -2x while the VIX was down 3x and up 2x.

 

Coming attractions …Q4 and FY23 reporting season and “runways” will get measured as consensus and estimates will get missed!

  • For the next few weeks, if you're buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship even as … Q4 and FY23 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) are due even though some highlights were delivered to facilitate JPM presentations – there are consensus and beaten estimates to be reckoned!

 

Monday coming actions and thoughts:

  • Stocks will enter the final week of the month near all-time highs. After a rocky start to the year, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up over 2% so far in January. Meanwhile the Dow is up more than 1%.
  • Stocks closed out another week hovering near record highs as one of the busiest weeks of the quarter is set to greet investors.
  • The three major averages all rose last week following encouraging economic data. Economic growth in the fourth quarter was stronger than expected, while core inflation on a yearly basis was lower than economists had expected, suggesting a cooldown in price increases.

 

It's also a good idea to take some profits, especially if you didn't do so in past sessions.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.