February 9, 2024 5:11pm

As risk will be illuminated by next week’s earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) reporting

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End of Week review and update

A slight sigh of relief, I qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in “our” portfolio in the short-term

It’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and NOT being indentured to ANY financial institution!

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -54.64 points or -0.14%, the S&P closed UP +28.70 points +0.57% while the Nasdaq closed UP +196.95 points or +1.25%

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +48.84 points or +0.13%, the S&P closed UP +2.85 points +0.06% while the Nasdaq closed UP +37.07 points or +0.24%

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +156.00 points or +0.40%, the S&P closed UP +40.83 points +0.82% while the Nasdaq closed UP +147.65 points or +0.95%

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +141.24 points or +0.37%, the S&P closed UP +11.42 points +0.23% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN +11.32 points or +0.07%

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -274.30 points or -0.71%, the S&P closed DOWN -15.80 points -0.32% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -31,28 points or -0.20%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed on Friday after December’s revised inflation reading came in lower than first reported, and the S&P 500 broke above the historic 5,000 level as strong earnings and economic news chugged on.

For the week, the S&P added +1.4%, while the Nasdaq’s gained +2.3%. while the Dow finished 0.1%.

Economic Data Docket: A revision lower in December’s consumer price index also helped sentiment. The government adjusted the figure to a 0.2% increase, down from a 0.3% increase initially reported.

  • Core inflation figures, excluding food and energy, were the same. Treasury yields briefly traded lower following the release of the revised figures. January’s CPI figures are due next week.

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “deal the cards and watch for “tells”. You accept what you are given or have (already) so, follow what your portfolio holds and then ask for new cards.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13322

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 26 incliners, 7 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 25 incliners, 7 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 19 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 27 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 5 decliners and 2; ending with a negative close of 31 incliners, 4 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2; ending with a negative close of 11 incliners, 23 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: February, 3 negative and 4 positive closes

  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.25% and the XBI was up +2.03%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.40% and the XBI was up +1.27%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.78% and the XBI was down -1.88%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.96% and the XBI was up +1.53%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.19% and the XBI was up +0.50%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.15 point or +1.17% at 12.93
  • Thursday was down -0.03 point or -0.23% at 12.80
  • Wednesday was down -0.23 point or -1.76% at 12.08
  • Tuesday was down -0.65 point or -4.75% at 13.02
  • Monday was down -0.20 point or -1.44% at 13.65

 

Friday’s Closing Down (7 of 7):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.24 after Thursday’s -$0.84, Wednesday’s +$0.31, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s +$0.49)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.13 and Wednesday’s -$0.81),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.08 after Thursday’s +$1.72, Wednesday’s +$1.52, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.08)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.03),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.02),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0169),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0093 after Thursday’s -$0.0053 and Wednesday’s +$0.0031),

Flat (3):

  • Graphite Bio (GRPH)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 25):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.38 after Thursday’s -$0.04 and Wednesday’s -$2.97),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.42),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.28 after Thursday’s +$0.74, Wednesday’s -$1.18, Tuesday’s +$1.13 and Monday’s +$1.74)
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.18 after Thursday’s +$3.11, Wednesday’s -$1.16, Tuesday’s +$2.37 and Monday’s -$0.24)
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.94 after Thursday’s +$0.54, Wednesday’s -$0.31, Tuesday’s +$1.95 and Monday’s +$0.01
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.93 after Thursday’s +$1.62, Wednesday’s +$0.07, Tuesday’s +$0.94 and Monday’s +$0.33)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.76 after Thursday’s +$1.40, Wednesday’s -$0.50, Tuesday’s +$1.73 and Monday’s -$0.45)
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.59 after Thursday’s +$0.86, Wednesday’s -$0.51, Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$0.20)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.54 after Thursday’s -$0.01)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.53 after Thursday’s +$0.90, Wednesday’s -$3.58, Tuesday’s +$1.48 and Monday’s -$2.36),

 

Q1/24 – February

  • Friday closed positive with 25 incliners, 7 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 27 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 31 incliners, 4 decliners and 0 flat
  • (2/5) Monday closed negative with 12 incliners, 23 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector had its second positive session in a row.

  • The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 30.29 points, or 1.5%, to 2,009.99.

A quote to ponder, "The market does have the Fed's wind at its back. Seemingly we've reached the top of interest rates. The next move is going to down. We don't know when that's going to be. The Fed keeps throwing cold water on that idea but their votes with the dots say they're going to be easing in the second half." < Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder>

 

What more can I write; I have said it all – read the weeklies and know I have been RIGHT!

  • Reiterating … again, “the cell and gene therapy sector continues to “recalibrate” its share pricing expectations and I don't think this … adjustment is completely over.”
  • Earnings and guidance are beginning as Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) with Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on 2/14 and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on 2/15 announcing Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: WHY do I keep analyzing Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN) formerly, Biostage (BSTG):

  • I WAS there to experience the lack of corporate and investor prerogatives, saw the decay of transparency and more; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!
  • Have you notice how it barely trades unless volume is “pumped”; is it by DST Capital, run by the president of HRGN, Hong Yu and Mrs. Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass – funded by Lui Dong Hai, chairman of Dixintong Technology Group (D. Phone, the largest smartphone retailer in China) the husband of Mrs. bin Zhao?
  • Still labeled a … Going Concern… flailing for the lack of U.S. investors and a VERY short “runway” until Q4/2023’s end … and the back story to Netflix: “Bad Surgeon, Love under the Knife”.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Vericel (VCEL)  
  • Wednesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Friday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Thursday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), uniQure NV (QURE) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.