February 29, 2024 5:03pm
As volume on the Nasdaq ran higher compared with the same time Wednesday.
Earnings: VCEL and BLFS
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 2 Miss
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One can take a good or bad feeling, re-frame it, and suddenly that feeling is the solution. Not me, I don’t run from any feeling but, take that sensation itself as a sharpened stick to “poke’ mainstream thinking.
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence!
Thursday: The Dow closed up +47.37 points or +0.12%, the S&P closed UP +26.51 points +0.52% while the Nasdaq closed UP +144.18 points or +0.90%
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes advanced Thursday as the major averages were headed toward a winning month. Investors also digested a key inflation metric that met economist expectations along with fresh U.S. housing numbers.
Economic Data Docket: The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased by increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago.
- Headline PCE, which includes food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.4%.
- Personal income rose 1% month-over-month in January, well above the forecast for 0.3%.
- Pending home sales posted a surprise drop in January amid swings in mortgage rates. Pending sales declined 4.9% for the month, much worse than the 2% projected increase from the Dow Jones consensus.
Pre-open Indication: 4 Hits < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.23), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.93), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.70), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.15)> 2 MISS < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$3.97), MiMedx (MDXG -$0.04), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.57)>
Wednesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “a hot inflation report could trigger significant selling as earnings keep on coming. Followed by LPS (loss-per-share) “numbers” for those reporting. “… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13350
Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:
- Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 14 incliner, 18 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:
Q1/24: February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
- January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was down -1.85% and the XBI was down -3.05%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was DOWN -0.44 point or -3.18% at 13.40
Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 26):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.14 after Wednesday’s -$3.77),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$4.12 after Wednesday’s -$1.46 after Tuesday’s +$9.27 and Monday’s +$1.81),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.46 after Wednesday’s -$1.44 after Tuesday’s +$3.06 and Monday’s +$2.07),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.46 after Wednesday’s -$0.87 after Tuesday’s +$1.68 and Monday’s +$0.93),
- Vericel (VCEL -$2.12),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.93 after Wednesday’s -$4.34 after Tuesday’s +$4.74 and Monday’s +$5.56
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.33 after Wednesday’s -$0.87 after Tuesday’s +$1.31 and Monday’s +$0.74),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.07),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.03 after Wednesday’s -$0.91 after Tuesday’s +$3.41 and Monday’s +$0.77),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.01 after Wednesday’s +$2.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.80)
Thursday’s Closing Up (7 of 7):
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.23 after Wednesday’s -$0.34),
- Graphite Bio (GRPH +$0.11 after Wednesday’s +$0.12),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.09),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.04),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.02),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.0004 after Wednesday’s +$0.0036)
Flat (2):
- Homology Medicine (FIXX),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM),
Q1/24 – February
Thursday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats
Wednesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 31 incliners, 3 decliners and 1 flat
(2/26) Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flats
Friday closed positive with 22 incliners, 13 decliners and x0flats
Thursday closed positive with 26 incliners, 9 decliners and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
Tuesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 24 decliners and 1 flat
(2/19) Monday was a market holiday
Friday closed negative with 18 incliners, 17 decliners and 0 flats
Thursday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliners, 3 decliners and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 33 decliners and 0 flat
(2/12) Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flats
Friday closed positive with 25 incliners, 7 decliners and 3 flats
Thursday closed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 27 decliners and 0 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 31 incliners, 4 decliners and 0 flat
(2/5) Monday closed negative with 12 incliners, 23 decliners and 0 flat
Friday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats
(2/1) Thursday closed negative with 26 incliners, 7 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: The stock market today closed the day negative …
The cell and gene therapy sector zipped-lined to the downside Thursday and Wednesday after closing positive on Tuesday after Monday positive close following after Friday’s positive close after last Thursday’s positive close
Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.
I have seen net incomes for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG), and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),Vericel (VCEL) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>
15 have reported …
Thursday – VCEL and BLFS
Wednesday – QURE, EDIT, VERV, MDXG, VYGR
Tuesday -BEAM, VERV, RGNX;
Monday - FATE;
Last week -NTLA, CRSP, IONS, SAGE, RARE, BPMC and ALNY.
- RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628
Earnings - today:
Vericel (VCEL):
- Q4/23 – net income of +$13 M or +$0.26 per share
- FY23 net loss of -$3.2 M or -$0.07 with a cash position of $152.6 M and a runway until 2027
BioLife Solutions (BLFS)_ (VERV)
- Q4/23 – net loss of -$13.38 M or -$0.30 per share
- FY23 net loss of -$66.423 M or -$1.52 with a cash position of $52.3 M and a runway until 2026
Again, “investor sentiment can be fragile, especially as markets sit at record high levels when the outlook for the US economy remains uncertain.”
I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”
Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Thursday: AxoGen (AXGN), Graphite Bio (GRPH) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)
- Wednesday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
- Tuesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
- Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BLMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
- Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
- Tuesday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) and Vericel (VCEL)
- Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Harvard Apparatus RT (HRGN)
BEWARE… I MANY TIMES AM I RIGHT …
The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTC QB HRGN) formerly the Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: shows how the “pimp/pump and promote” works …my treatise is VALIDATED!
- Thursday closed down -$0.05 with 301 shares traded
- Wednesday closed up +$0.05 WITH 12,187 shares traded (aver 3-mo=2,311 shares)
- Tuesday dropped -$0.01 with 1,314 shares traded,
- (2/26) Monday closed down -$0.09 with 350 shares traded
- Friday closed up +$0.0625 with 8,114 shares traded <aver 3-mo = 2,186>
- Thursday closed up +$0.0075 with 15,907 shares traded
- Wednesday close down -$0.02 with 1,106 shares traded,
- Tuesday closed up +$0.24 with 24,963 shares traded <3-month average = 1,545 shares> WOW, if this doesn’t prove my point – nothing will!!
Did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is being “pumped.” This question needs to be answered as HRGN is desperate to finance by any means as past Chinese private placement investors must be feeling … WHAT … TAKEN to the cleaners?
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
