March 6, 2024 5:15pm

Financings, clinical data and expectation are going to be the drivers of what's to happen

Earnings: Generation Bio (GBIO)

Financing: Regenxbio (RGNX) proposes offering to sell $125 M of stock as stock drops -$0.61 to $24.00 with a -$0.75 aftermarket indication

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 1 Miss

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Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +75.86 points or ++0.20%, the S&P closed UP +26.11 points +0.51% while the Nasdaq closed UP +91.96 points or +0.58%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Wednesday marked the first positive day this week for any of the three major indexes after the 3 notched two straight days of declines.

Fed chair Powell noted that the central bank would like to see more data when questioned by the House Financial Services Committee today. He’s also slated to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on tomorrow.

Economic Data Docket: Available positions totaled 8.86 million for the month, down just 26,000 from December but down more than 1.5 million from a year ago and off 3.3 million from their March 2022 historical peak, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Wednesday. The reading was about in line with the Dow Jones estimate for 8.9 million.

  • Separations as well as layoffs and discharges also all showed only modest changes from the previous month. Quits rose, however, up 309,000 on the month, taking the rate as a share of workers to 2.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point.

 

Pre-open Indication: 2 Hit <Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.10), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.21)>  and 1 MISS < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.16)>

 

Wednesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “After a Monday and Tuesday fizzles, still waiting for a little sizzle? Very weak aftermarket as Fed Chief Powell set to testify.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13358

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliner, 14 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 2 positive and 2 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.53% and the XBI was up +0.66%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was up +0.04. point or +0.28% at 14.50

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 14):

  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.61 after Tuesday’s +$3.25 and Monday’s +$0.17)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.30 after Tuesday’s -$2.14),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.23 after Tuesday’s +$0.27 and Monday’s -$1.60),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.21 after Tuesday’s -$1.84
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.16 after Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s -$2.01),
  • Graphite bio (GBIO -$0.14),
  • Sage Therapeutics (-$0.10),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.09 after Tuesday’s +$0.10 and Monday’s +$0.14),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.08),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.07 after Tuesday’s -$0.70 and Monday’s -$0.45),

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 21):

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.05),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.72),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.71 after Tuesday’s -$1.13 and Monday’s -$4.32),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$0.09 and Monday’s -$0.69),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.36 after Tuesday’s -$0.71 and Monday’s +$0.03),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.14),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.13),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.13),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.68 and Monday’s -$0.59),

 

Q1/24 – March

  • Wednesday closed positive with 21 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  From the title re consistency, “the quality of always behaving or performing in a similar way, or of always happening in a similar way.”

  • Consistency also implies a positive sense of dependability.
  • It’s too bad, we see the mostly a merry-go-round approach to share pricing

The cell and gene therapy sector closed Wednesday positive after Tuesday and Monday’s negative close following last Friday’s closed positive …

  • Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>

21 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Earnings today: Generation Bio (GBIO) …

  • Q4/23 net loss of -$35.2 M or -$0.53
  • FY23 net loss of -$126.6 m or -$1.96 with a cash position of $264.4 M and a runway until 2H/2027

 

 I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”

Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Wednesday: Fate therapeutics (FATE), Vericel (VCEL) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), and Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Monday: Voyager therapeutics (VYGR), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Regenxbio (RGNX)  

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Wednesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Tuesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.