March 7, 2024 4:53pm

Is sentiment truly at work, not on this watch

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 2 Miss

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I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

Today is another example of the sector being what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +130.30 points or ++0.34%, the S&P closed UP +52.60 points +1.03% while the Nasdaq closed UP +241.83 points or +1.51%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back to record highs, as hope over easing inflation aiding a midweek bounce.

This week, despite the tough start to the week, the S&P 500 was now up +0.4%, the Nasdaq was near flat on the week, while the Dow was down around -0.6%.

Economic Data Docket: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week as the labor market continued to gradually ease, the Labor Department's data showed.

 

Pre-open Indication: 2 Hit < Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.13), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.32)> and 2 MISS < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.41), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.66)   

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “BUY or SELL zone? Which future share pricing increases or decreases as algorithms and electronic trading set the “tone” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13361

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 17 incliner, 17 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a barely negative close of 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 2 positive and 3 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Thursday, the IBB was up +0.33% and the XBI was down -1.34%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.10 point or -0.69% at 14.39

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 17):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.46 after Wednesday’s -$0.16, Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s -$2.01),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.32 after Wednesday’s -$0.23 after Tuesday’s +$0.27 and Monday’s -$1.60),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.77 after Wednesday’s -$0.61, Tuesday’s +$3.25 and Monday’s +$0.17)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.41 after Wednesday’s -$0.21 and Tuesday’s -$1.84
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.36 after Wednesday’s +$0.72),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.28 after Wednesday’s +$0.36, Tuesday’s -$0.71 and Monday’s +$0.03),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.26),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.23),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.13 after Wednesday’s -$0.07, Tuesday’s -$0.70 and Monday’s -$0.45),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0907),

Flat (2):

  • bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (HRGN $0.00 after Wednesday’s +$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$0.09 and Monday’s -$0.69)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.66 after Wednesday’s +$0.71, Tuesday’s -$1.13 and Monday’s -$4.32),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.74 and Wednesday’s -$0.08),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.38 after Wednesday’s +$0.10, Tuesday’s -$0.68 and Monday’s -$0.59),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.37 after Wednesday’s +$1.05),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.24 after Wednesday’s -$0.10),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.21 after Wednesday’s +$0.13),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.20),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.18 after Wednesday’s -$0.09, Tuesday’s +$0.10 and Monday’s +$0.14),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$0.14),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.0985)

 

Q1/24 – March

  • Thursday closed negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Pessimism and lack of confidence as Thursday’s session closes

  • A daily narrative evolved to the downsideas the sector finished … as investors anxiously await the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for further details on the labor market.
  • I also believe that tonight’s “State of the Union” address will cause turbulence in tomorrow’s market!

 

Interesting quote, “Everybody is waiting for something bad to happen but nothing bad has happened to the economy, markets, earnings and policy," <John Augustine, chief investment officer at Huntington Private Bank>

 

The cell and gene therapy sector closed Thursday negative after Wednesday positive close after Tuesday and Monday’s negative close following last Friday’s closed positive …

  • Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

 

I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>

21 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”

Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Vericel (VCEL) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), and Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Monday: Voyager therapeutics (VYGR), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Regenxbio (RGNX)  

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Thursday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Regenxbio (RGNX) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Tuesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.