March 11, 2024 4:42pm

News shapes bad share responses as indexes slip and sector dips

News: bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.11) has signed its first Medicaid outcomes-based agreement for LYFGENIA™ (lovotibeglogene autotemcel, also known as lovo-cel) with the state of Michigan. LYFGENIA is a one-time gene therapy approved for the treatment of patients 12 years of age and older with sickle cell disease and a history of vaso-occlusive events (VOEs). Approximately 50 percent of individuals living with sickle cell disease in the U.S. are insured by Medicaid.

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits and 0 Miss

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Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence! 

No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes. It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t Ai oriented!  

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +46.97 points or +0.12%, the S&P closed DOWN -5.75 points -0.11% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -65.84 points or -0.41%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed to start the week as losses come as traders prepare for February’s consumer price index due Tuesday.

Economic Data Docket: Economists anticipate CPI will rise 0.4% between January and February and 3.1% on an annualized basis. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core basket is expected to increase 0.3% on the month and 3.7% on the year.

 

Pre-open Indication: 6 Hit < Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.27), Mesoblast Limited (MESO +$0.51), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.06), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.83), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.02), Vericel (VCEL -$0.61)> and 0 MISS

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “caution, take a little money off the table as investors will fear a reprise of hotter inflation data. Mixed signals, investors will face a test before the Fed's March 20 meeting when the February Consumer Prince Index (CPI) report out Tuesday offers an updated look at inflation. Retail sales and consumer sentiment reports will also feature on the economic calendar in the back half of the week.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13365

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q1/24: March, 2 positive and 5 negative closes

  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.04% and the XBI was down -2.19%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.46 point or +3.12% at 15.20

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 28):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.83 after Friday’s +$0.26
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.10 after Friday’s -$0.45
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.02 after Friday’s -$0.32
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.96 after Friday’s +$0.57
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.91 after Friday’s +$0.72
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.73 after Friday’s -$0.68)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.72),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.61 after Friday’s +$0.38)
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.54),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.43),

Monday’s Closing Up (7 of 7):

  • Graphite Bio (GRPH +$0.59),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.51),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.27 after Friday’s +$0.98
  • Regenxbio (RGNX+$0.10 after Friday’s -$0.48
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.04),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.02),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.0033)

 

Q1/24 – March

  • (3/11) Monday closed negative with 7 incliners, 28 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Who says that inflation numbers ... infect the cell and gene therapy sector - everyone!!

The cell and gene therapy sector closed Monday, Friday and Thursday negative after Wednesday positive close after Tuesday and Monday’s negative close following the previous Friday’s closed positive …

  • Earnings, net losses, and per-share losses, runways and guidance have begun Q4 and FY23 which WILL be crucial to continue downside force in the sector as history has taught us i.e., investors.

I have seen 4 net income for the Q4 and FY23 - MiMedx (MDXG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) followed by Q4 CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) <but each had a FY23 loss>

21 have reported … RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q4/23 & FY23 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Quote from UBS, “The market looks more susceptible to pullbacks, although we don’t believe investors should lose sight of the bigger picture.” <the bank’s chief investment officer>

 

I ALSO reiterate, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.”

Short and non-sweet: SELL into STRENGTH – accumulate some “powder” i.e., cash!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Monday:  Graphite Bio (GRPH), Mesoblast (MESO) and Solid BioSciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.