April 15, 2024 7:46am

Dangerous geo-political times as I stated Friday, “start looking for bottoms” amongst the wreckage

Pre-open Indicators: 3 Positive and 2 Negative Indicators

Join me … in the NO spin zone and new website!

A string of reports showing inflation and the economy have remained hotter than expected has forced the “Street” to delay forecasts for when relief on rates could arrive

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and volatility!

My version of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s including what happened or will happen beyond the headline and shapes today’s potential sector response as seen by RMi.

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.49% or (+184 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.56% or (+29 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.61% or (+111 points)

U.S. stock futures ticked higher Monday, April 15, 2024,

European markets were higher,

Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday as traders weighed the impact of Iran’s massive drone and missile attacks on Israel.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -475.84 points or -1.24%, the S&P closed DOWN -75.65 points or -1.46% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -267.10 points or -1.62%

The CBOE Volatility index, or VIX, spiked +16.1% on Friday to the market fear gauge's highest levels since late October on Iran concerns.

Economic Data Docket: Empire Manufacturing, April (-5 expected, -20.9 prior); Retail sales, month-over-month, March (+0.4% expected, +0.6% previously); Retail sales ex auto and gas month-over-month, March (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); NAHB housing market index, April (51 expected, 51 previously)

 

Friday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “the cell and gene therapy sector’s trend-line remains in constant correction; start looking for bottoms. As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect.” Although, being “greedy when others are fearful” is easier said than done.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13416

 

Q2/24:  April - 8 negative and 2 positive closes

Q1/24:

  • March – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$3.59 after Thursday’s -$0.32, Wednesday’s -$3.49, Tuesday’s -$0.14 and Monday’s +$2.48 with a neutral pre-open indication.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$1.34 after Thursday’s +$0.21, Wednesday’s -$2.26, Tuesday’s +$0.51 and Monday’s +$0.61 with a neutral pre-open indication.

Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.82 after Thursday’s -$0.46 and Wednesday’s -$1.16 with a neutral pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.74 after Thursday’s +$0.06, Wednesday’s -$1.13, Tuesday’s +$0.78 and Monday’s +$0.52 with a negative -$0.09 or -0.37% pre-open indication.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$3.70 after Thursday’s -$0.91, Wednesday’s +$1.05 and Tuesday’s +$0.59) with a negative -$2.50 or -5.32% pre-open indication.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: It’s all about demand, there is a supply of oversold.

Indexes and equities sold off Friday on fears of an Iran attack and then it happened.

  • An escalating Iran-Israel conflict could trigger a far-larger fear spike and a big retreat from equities.
  • …If … I was Israel I would “hit” their oil fields as a response target --- oil prices fell about 1% on Monday after rising ahead of Iran's air strike.
  • Stocks will then come under pressure>

The stock market rally had a tough week on a hot CPI inflation report and Mideast fears, with Friday's losses wiping out Thursday's bullish signals.

  • The Nasdaq, which hit a record close Thursday, fell 1.6% in Friday's stock market trading to end the week with a 0.45% loss. The Nasdaq finished below the 21-day line but just above the 50-day and 10-week lines. It's also still trading with the big April 4 reversal day.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield leapt 12 basis points to 4.5%, with Thursday's peak of 4.59% a five-month high. Investors only see a modest chance of a Fed rate cut in June and are only leaning toward a move in July.
  • The CBOE Volatility index shot up 16.1% on Friday, hitting its highest levels since late October. Excessive fear could foreshadow at least a short-term bottom. <IBD>

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • Never forget, one of my usual lines. “The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it.”
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.