April 16, 2024 8:21am

An allusion to the imminent and ever-present peril faced by markets suspended from the ceiling by a middle east thread

Pre-open Indicators: 2 Positive and 2 Negative Indicators

Join me … in the NO spin zone and new website!

A string of reports showing inflation and the economy have remained hotter than expected has forced the “Street” to delay forecasts for when relief on rates could arrive

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and volatility!

My version of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s including what happened or will happen beyond the headline and shapes today’s potential sector response as seen by RMi.

 

Tuesday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.65% or (+246 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.27% or (+14 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.21% or (+38 points)

Futures were up on Tuesday,

European markets were lower,

Asia-Pacific markets sold off as the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s rocket attack

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -248.13 points or -0.65%, the S&P closed DOWN -61.59 points or -1.20% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -290.08 points or -1.79%

The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly referred to as the fear index or VIX, closed at its highest level <19.23 after rising as high as 19.46> since October.

Economic Data Docket: housing starts and building permits to gain insight into the health of the housing sector. Industrial production data is also set for release before the open.

  • Building permits month-over-month, March (-0.3% expected, 2.4% previously); Housing starts month-over-month, March (-2.7% expected, +10.7% previously); Industrial production, month-over-month, March (+0.4% expected, +0.1% prior)

 

Monday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “another rough ride; trading reflects anticipation, scraps of expectation as to tensions in the Middle East … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13418

 

Q2/24:  April - 9 negative and 2 positive closes

Q1/24:

  • March – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive Indications:

Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$4.13 after Friday’s -$3.70, Thursday’s -$0.91, Wednesday’s +$1.05 and last Tuesday’s +$0.59 with a neutral pre-open indication.

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed down -2.07 after Friday’s -$5.42, Thursday’s +$1.76, Wednesday’s -$1.71 and last Tuesday’s +$0.66 with a neutral pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indications:

Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.23 after Friday’s -$1.34, Thursday’s +$0.21, Wednesday’s -$2.26 and last Tuesday’s +$0.51 with a negative -$0.40 or -1.56% pre-open indication.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.95 after Friday’s -$2.24, Thursday’s +$1.17, Wednesday’s -$3.45 and last Tuesday’s +$1.10 with a negative -$0.22 or -0.37% pre-open indication.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: It’s STILL all about demand, there is a 4-session supply of oversold.

  • Indexes and equities sold off Monday after a weekend of Iranian attack on Israel … but the question is what’s next i.e., a JUSTIFIED response from Israel and then what will happen?

“The stock market rally tried to bounce Monday morning, but quickly turned lower in yet another ugly reversal. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke key levels. Treasury yields surged to fresh 2024 highs even amid uncertainty over how Israel will respond to Iran's drone-and-missile attack Saturday.” <IBD>

Reiterating …

  • An escalating Iran-Israel conflict could trigger a far-larger fear spike and a big retreat from equities.
  • …If … I was Israel I would “hit” their oil fields as a response target --- oil prices fell about 1% on Monday after rising ahead of Iran's air strike.
  • Stocks will continue under pressure.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • Never forget, one of my usual lines. “The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it.”
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.