April 18, 2024 4:49pm

There is a 7-session downslide in a row and 12 negative closes of 14 sessions so far this month with a bigger supply of oversold

I think Aristotle may have been the first to crystallize the fallacies (in writing at least) of many situations we are trying to deal with. Ad Verecundiam (Appeal to Authority) is certainly one fallacy, Ad Metum (Appeal to Fear) is the answer to the argument!

A 360-degree review of the who, why, when and what happened in the sector as the market and economics surround your portfolio defense.

Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter about – facts in evidence! 

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +24.90 points or +0.07%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.09 points or -0.22% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -81.87 points or -0.52%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed and are all poised to see losses this week. So far in this week, the S&P 500 has slid more than 2% while the Dow dipped 0.6% and the Nasdaq -3%.

Economic Data Docket: Initial filings for unemployment claims held steady at 212,000 for the week ended April 13, indicating that companies remain reluctant to lay off workers. The claims number was slightly below the estimate for 215,000 and reflected a still-tight labor market despite the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 23 years. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed, rising 2,000 to 1.81 million.

  • The Conference Board’s index declined more than expected in March, reversing the previous month’s gain. The index posted a drop of 0.3% on the month, down from a 0.2% increase in February and below the estimate for a -0.1% reading. The index measures 10 indicators including stocks, housing statistics, employment data and various credit and bond market measures.
  • Existing home sales declined less than expected in March as prices set a new record, the National Association of Realtors. Sales fell 4.3% on the month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.19 million, compared to the estimate for a decline of 4.8% and a total level of 4.17 million.
  • A gauge measuring manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region posted an unexpectedly sharp gain in April, due in good part to a jump in an inflation measure. The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index rose to 15.5 for the month, up more than 12 points from March and better than the estimate for 2.5. The index measures the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion and contraction, so anything above zero is positive.

 

All-time Low:

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERX) at $6.63
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) at $21.21
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) at $5.53
  • Prime Medicine (PRPE) at $4.87
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) at $12.96

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “the down draft doesn’t seem to be over. I haven’t changed my tune; the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." <Baron Rothschild> On the plus side, it’s coming; this pullback should let the cell and gene therapy sector catch up!” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13423

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 12 negative and 2 positive closes

Q1/24:

  • March, 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.99% and the XBI was down -1.38%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.30 points or -1.64% at 17.91

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 24):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.40 after Wednesday’s -$1.26 after Tuesday’s -$1.18 and Monday’s -$0.82),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.92 after Wednesday’s -$0.47 after Tuesday’s -$0.52),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.73 after Wednesday’s +$1.80 after Tuesday’s -$0.56 after Monday’s -$4.13),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.73 after Wednesday’s +$0.17),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.43 after Wednesday’s -$0.90),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.39),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.34),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.23),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.20),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.20)

Flat (3):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)

Thursday’s Closing Up (8 of 8):

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.86 after Tuesday’s +$0.32 and Monday’s -$0.82),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.60 after Wednesday’s -$2.40 after Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s -$1.95)
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.52 after Wednesday’s +$2.29 after Tuesday’s +$0.91 after Monday’s -$2.07),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.47 after Wednesday’s -$3.06 after Tuesday’s +$0.31),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$0.32 after Tuesday’s -$0.48),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.04),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.01),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0071 after Wednesday’s +$0.0071 after Tuesday’s +$0.0071 after Monday’s +$0.0071),


April to date:

  • Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: It’s STILL all about the lack of demand with plenty of supply …

Cell and gene therapy sector equities have sold off … 7 sessions in a row and 11 to date this month of April!

  • Last week, I wrote that I favor … caution over the next few weeks! Wednesday … proved me true, yet again, again, again and again!

 

Notice:The Russell 2000 is on track to notch its worst monthly performance since 2022 as small caps face pressure. The small-cap index has dropped more than 8% so far in April. If that holds through the month’s conclusion, it would mark the biggest monthly loss going back to September of 2022, when it tumbled more than 9%.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:  

  • Thursday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.