April 23, 2024 7:40am
Another weak aftermarket/pre-open after Monday’s close; “it’s always darkest before it goes pitch black”
Q1/24 earnings season begins this week, alongside the March reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (on Thursday) and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (on Friday)
Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive
Q1/24 Reporting Season: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 4/25; MiMedx (MDXG) on 4/30, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on Thursday, 5/2; Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) Tuesday, 5/7
Never leave an investor uninformed!
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.
Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and volatility; it also includes what happened or will happen beyond the headline which shapes today’s potential sector response as seen by RMi.
Tuesday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.19% or (+75 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.28% or (+14 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.35% or (+60 points)
U.S. stock futures edged higher on Tuesday, April 23, 2024,
European markets were higher,
Asia-Pacific markets were also higher,
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Monday: The Dow closed UP +253.91 points or +0.67%, the S&P closed UP +43.38 points or +0.87% while the Nasdaq closed UP +169.29 points or +1.11.
Economic Data Docket: S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, April, preliminary (52.0 expected, 51.9 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, April, preliminary (52 expected, 51.9 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, April, preliminary (52 expected, 52.1 previously); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, April (-11 prior); New home sales, March (670,000 expected, 662,000 previously); New home sales, month-over-month, March (1.2% expected, -0.3% previously)
Monday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “a flash sector relief rally? A Monday risk-on mode was supported by signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, after a weakened April share pricing month. G-2, Intel: Is Agenus (AGEN) preparing for an offering … $300 common <134, 512,851 shares) stock, preferred stock, warrants and debt securities … Shelf Filing … Post Effective Amendment … reasoning for the Share Reverse on 4/12? <see The Bottom Line> “ https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13428
From the title,” What does it's always darkest before pitch black” or it becomes totally black mean?
- Meaning when you think things are the worst, they may be about to improve. But this quote: “It's always darkest before pitch black.” is a twist of the original. It means, just when you think things are bad, they get worse. Or when you think things are the worst, they are really BAD.”
Q2/24: April - 13 negative and 3 positive closes
Q1/24:
- March – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
- February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
- January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Positive Indications:
Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.61 after Friday’s -$1.11 after Thursday’s +$0.60 after Wednesday’s +$2.29 and last Tuesday’s +$0.91 with a positive +$0.29 or +0.52% pre-open indication
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed down -$0.05 with a neutral pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: Were investors buying or was it “uncle algo(rithm) and his electronic trading dwarfs”?
As I stated Monday’s a.m., “The lead, it's not quite the time to be buying sector stocks; investors should have slim-to-modest exposure, generally only keeping winners with a hefty cushion.”
- We need to get through earnings season to overview the initial releases for some strength!
- Most of the sector stocks have NOT held support, with a few making encouraging moves.
This week's calendar of economic data will feature Q1 GDP and the Fed's primary inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.
Based on the already reported inputs, the forthcoming data likely won't spell relief for the recent surge in interest rates. <IBD>
- The GDP data, out Thursday, will provide the big picture. The first official estimate of real GDP is expected to show 2.1% growth in the first quarter, down from 3.4% in the fourth quarter.
- Along with GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports the core PCE price index. Personal spending and outlays for March are due Friday.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- Never forget, one of my usual lines. “The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it.”
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
