April 25, 2024 7:48am

Traders’ angst centers on key economic data releases which usually send equities seesawing back and forth

Also coming at us – Q1/24 earnings’ releases reporting LPS (loss-per-share) season, estimates and consensus and “runways” and those whose cash positions render their future questionable sets-up market reaction

Earnings: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) a Q1/24 net loss of -$108.5 or -$1.80 per share, ZURZUVAE revenue was $6.2 M with cash position of $717 M and a 2026 “runway”

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and volatility; it also includes what happened or will happen beyond the headline which shapes today’s potential sector response as seen by RMi.

 

Thursday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -1.13% or (-431 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -1.11% or (-56 points) as the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -1.44% or (-255 points)

U.S. stock futures fell Thursday,

European stocks open lower,

Asia Pacific markets were mixed.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -42.77 points or -0.11%, the S&P closed UP +1.08 points or +0.02% while the Nasdaq closed UP +16.11 points or +0.10%

Economic Data Docket: Q1/24 GDP, first estimate (+2.5% annualized rate expected, +3.4% previously); Q1 personal consumption, first estimate (+2.6% expected, 3.3% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended, April 20 (215,000 expected, 212,000 previously); Pending home sales, month-over-month, March (+1.0% expected, +1.6% previously)

  • U.S. gross domestic product increased less than expected in Q1/24; which came in at 1.6%. Economists forecast that real GDP came in at 2.4%. Along with the downbeat growth rate for the quarter, the report showed consumer prices increased at a 3.4% pace, well above the previous quarter’s 1.8% advance.

 

Wednesday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “I told you so. More frequently right than consequentially wrong. As I wrote this (7.49 a.m.), It’s “make” a buck day! Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled as I BELIEVE a “wobble” IS coming.” It came … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13432   

 

Q2/24:  April - 14 negative and 4 positive closes

Q1/24:

  • March – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February – 1 market holiday, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

I am passing on forecasting the daily indications is focused on economic releases today  and inflation-oriented “numbers” tomorrow after the aftermarket fluctuated as the pre-open waits for the all-clear alarm, …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  The cell and gene therapy sector is in play … yesterday indexes erased gains and closed narrowly mixed on Wednesday.

  • Sector stocks dived deeply as bond yields once again ticked higher, sending pressure down the small cap spectrum to areas like the Russell 2000 which fell about -0.6%.

Pre-open Thursday, investors will get the first reading for Q1/24 GDP growth, along with weekly jobless claims.

  • The GDP report will include the core PCE price index giving a sneak peek into the March PCE price data due Friday.

 

An expressive quote, "This week is getting back to market fundamentals and earnings. At least temporarily, we are sidestepping geopolitics which have been impacting markets in the last two weeks." <Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier>

 

Q1/24 Reporting Season:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 4/25 - today
  • MiMedx (MDXG) on 4/30,
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on Thursday, 5/2;
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Agenus (AGEN) on Tuesday, 5/7,
  • Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 5/8

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • Never forget, one of my usual lines. “The sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be … that is after taking a deep breath and holding it.”
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.