May 3, 2024 5:30pm

Drip, drip, drip in this week’s sessions = 6 to 9 to 12 equities dropping, watch for the drips going forward

Today is another example of the sector being what it should be … now it’s about taking a deep “earnings” LPS <loss-per-share> breath and holding it

A 360-degree review of the who, why, when and what happened in the sector as the market and economics surround your portfolio’s defense or offence.

Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

The week in review

 

The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter about – facts in evidence! 

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +450.02 points or +1.18%, the S&P closed UP +63.59 points or +1.26% while the Nasdaq closed UP +315.37 points or +1.99%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes jumped sharply Friday after a softer-than-expected April jobs report boosted hopes that the Fed could start cutting interest rates soon.

Economic Data Docket: nonfarm payrolls report showed 175,000 jobs gained in April, below the 240,000 jobs expected by economists. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, versus 3.8% in the prior month, according to the BLS. Wage figures also came in less than expected, an encouraging sign for inflation.

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “No single indicator is a guide to sector share pricing conditions. I suggest that it is better to keep your finger on the sell button but, still keep a buy ticket in the other hand.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13446

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q1/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 29 incliner, 6 decliners and 0 flat; ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 31 incliner, 3 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliner, 23 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 3 positive closes

  • April; 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.77% and the XBI was up +1.86%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.90% and the XBI was up +1.16%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.02% and the XBI was up +3.20%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.33% and the XBI was down -1.05%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.49% and the XBI was up +2.53%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.19 point or -8.11% at 13.49
  • Thursday was down -0.71 point or -4.61% at 14.68
  • Wednesday was down -0.26 point or -1.66% at 15.39
  • Tuesday was up +0.96 point or +6.74% at 15.62
  • Monday was down -0.34 point or -2.,26% at 14.69

 

Friday’s Closing Down (12 of 12):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.12),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.45 after Thursday’s -$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$0.76, Tuesday’s -$1.48 and Monday’s -$0.22)
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.13),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.13 after Thursday’s +$0.68 after Wednesday’s -$0.06),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.13 after Thursday’s +$0.69),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.68),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.05 after Thursday’s +$0.80 after Wednesday’s +$1.21, Tuesday’s -$0.80 and Monday’s +$0.62),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.03),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.02),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0183 after Thursday’s -$0.0362),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0054),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.00035 after Thursday’s -$0.006),

Flat (1):

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS $0.00 after Thursday’s+$0.42 after Wednesday’s -$0.024)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 22):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.02),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.84 after Thursday’s -$0.18 after Wednesday’s -$0.66),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.82 after Thursday’s +$1.26 after Wednesday’s +$0.82, Tuesday’s -$1.84 and Monday’s +$0.92),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.55 after Thursday’s -$0.74 after Wednesday’s +$1.14, Tuesday’s -$0.64 after Monday’s +$1.07),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.41 after Thursday’s +$0.98),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.33 after Thursday’s +$0.77 after Wednesday’s +$1.10),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.28),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.26),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +0.21$),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.19 after Thursday’s +$12.14 after Wednesday’s +$3.64 and Tuesday’s -$1.76),

 

Q2/24 – May

  • Friday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: April’s over; and the next few months are sure to be bumpy.

  • Are we as investors, "kind of stuck in the middle between FOMO, fear of missing out, and FOLA, that fear of losing it all?"
  • The cell and gene therapy sector was positive on Friday, Thursday, Wednesday after being hammered on Tuesday, bounding on Monday after last Friday’s rebound

The old saying, "Sell in May and go away" is not just folklore — stock market history supports it.

  • History shows stock market performance tends to sag from May to October compared with the November-April period. Still, investors can expect low single-digit gains over the next six months.
  • But the results have been less dramatic in the last 10 years, with the November-April period gaining 5.5% vs. a 4% increase the other six months. And the gap has widened slightly over the last five years, to 6% vs. 4%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. <IBD>

Q1/24 Reporting Season, it’s all about LPS (loss-per-share), cash positions and runways:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Agenus (AGEN) on Tuesday, 5/7
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT), Vericel (VCEL)and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) on Wednesday, 5/8
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) on Thursday, 5/9

Earnings on Thursday: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

  • ALNY:  Q1 loss, tops revenue estimate
  • AXGN: Q1 loss, lags revenue estimates
  • BPMC: Q1 net incomes, surpasses revenue estimates

Earnings next week - whispers;

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues. BLFS is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.26 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +18.8%. Revenues are expected to be $29.3 million, down 22.3% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues
  • Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues

The top three (3) performing in the session:  

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Agenus (AGEN) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Thursday: Agenus (AGEN), AxoGen (AXGN) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Wednesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.