May 9, 2024 4:41pm

The ability of share pricing to resume an improved valuation after being stretched or compressed

News: Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.20) its first patient with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has been treated in the P1 autoimmunity study of FT819, its off-the-shelf, CD19-targeted chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell program.

As I had stated, “let’s not forget about volatility”

A 360-degree review of the who, why, when and what happened in the sector as the market and economics surround your portfolio’s defense or offence.

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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter about – facts in evidence! 

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +331.37 points or +0.85%, the S&P closed UP +26.41points or +0.51% while the Nasdaq closed UP +43.51 points or +0.27%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose Thursday, putting the Dow on track for another winning day, as new data rekindled hope for Fed rate cuts later this year.

i.e., Fresh weekly jobless claims data came in at the highest level since August, raising expectations that Fed might cut interest rates at some point this year.

In addition to the unemployment data, a bond auction met with strong demand helped drive yields lower on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury was down more than 2 basis points at 4.461% while the 2-year Treasury yield dipped more than 3 basis points to 4.811%. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ending on May 4, up 22,000 from the week before. It was the highest claims number since late August 2023. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, increased to 1.78 million, up 17,000 from the previous week.

 

Fate Therapeutics (FATE)continued: at the American Society of Gene and Cell Therapy (ASGCT) 27th Annual Meeting, FATE presented translational data from the P1 study of FT819 in relapsed /refractory B-cell malignancies (BCM) and initial clinical observations from the P1 study of its FT522 off-the-shelf, CD19-targeted CAR NK cell program in relapsed / refractory B-cell lymphoma (BCL). Data from these programs highlight the scientific rationale and demonstrate key therapeutic mechanisms of activity for the treatment of B cell-mediated autoimmune disease.

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441   

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q1/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliner, 13 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 11 decliners and 3 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 5 positive and 2 negative closes

  • April; 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Thursday, the IBB was up +0.63% and the XBI was down -0.15%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.30 point or -2.31% at 12.70

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (11 of 11):

  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.99),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.92 after Wednesday’s +$2.04 after Tuesday’s +$3.11 and Monday’s -$1.11),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.78),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS-$0.69 after Wednesday’s -$0.77 after Tuesday’s -$1.35 and Monday’s +$0.31),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.44 after Wednesday’s +$0.23 after Tuesday’s +$2.30 and Monday’s -$0.94)
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.42),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.34),
  • Adverum Biotechnology’s (ADVM -$0.20 after Wednesday’s -$0.53 after Tuesday’s -$0.32 and Monday’s +$0.23)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.13),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.05 after Wednesday’s -$0.59 after Tuesday’s -$0.27 and Monday’s -$0.69)
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.04),

Flat (3):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 21):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.88 after Tuesday’s +$0.16 and Monday’s +$0.12)
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.96 after Wednesday’s -$1.83 after Tuesday’s +$2.58 and Monday’s -$0.89
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.53 after Wednesday’s -$0.64),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.36),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.30),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.28),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.26 after Wednesday’s -$2.24 after Tuesday’s -$1.53 and Monday’s +$1.17)
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.25 after Wednesday’s -$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$0.94 and Monday’s -$0.12)
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.20),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.18 after Wednesday’s +$0.07),

 

Q2/24 – May

  • Thursday closed positive with 21 incliners, 11 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  From yesterday, Investors NEED to STILL be cautious. Don't over extend until earnings are mid-way completed when the algos and electronic trading start “picking-up” sticks (i.e., stocks).

  • It seems “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” are jumping on the oversold. And the oversold will be overbought.

As I have written, “this week continues the Q1 financial performance elements of cell and gene therapy companies that sheds light on share value.”

Reporting today and share pricing:

Thursday:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA): Q1 loss, EPS miss as revenue surpasses
  • bluebird bio (BLUE): Q1 loss, delayed due to current and past restatements

Share pricing post earnings … closing today

  • NTLA: (+$1.86)
  • BLUE: (+$0.145)

 

Wednesday

  • CRBU: Q1 loss, misses revenue and EPS estimate
  • VCEL: Q1 loss, surprise revenue up
  • VERV: Q1 loss, tops revenue and EPS estimates
  • EDIT: Q1 loss, revenue miss

 

Other Earnings to date: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

  • RARE: Q1 loss
  • SAGE: Q1 loss
  • MDXG: Q1 loss
  • AXGN: Q1 loss
  • BPMC: net income
  • BEAM: Q1 loss, no revenue
  • IONS: Q1 loss, misses revenue and EPS estimate
  • AGEN: Q1 loss, misses revenue and EPS estimate
  • ALNY:  Q1 loss, tops revenue estimate and narrow miss on EPS
  • AXGN: Q1 loss, lags revenue estimates
  • BPMC: Q1 net incomes, surpasses revenue estimates

 

Earnings whispers:

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues. BLFS is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.26 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +18.8%. Revenues are expected to be $29.3 million, down 22.3% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Revenues in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven by collaboration revenues from Vertex. Total revenues stands at $8.31 million.
  • From Zacks investment Research

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:  

  • Thursday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Vericel (VCEL) and Editas Medicine (EDIT)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), uniQure NV (QURE) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Mesoblast (MESO) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY),
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.