May 13, 2024 4:41pm
Even as inflation expectations increase
Earnings: Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) <see The Bottom Line>
As I had stated, “let’s not forget about volatility”
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The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.
I write this blog/newsletter about – facts in evidence!
Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -81.33 points or -0.21%, the S&P closed DOWN -1.26 points or -0.02% while the Nasdaq closed UP +47.37 points or +0.29%
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes closed mixed Monday as traders grappled with rising inflation expectations ahead of key reports due later in the week.
Economic Data Docket: A New York Federal Reserve survey showed consumers last month increased their expectations for price increases in both the near and long term. On a one-year basis, inflation expectations rose to 3.3%. Their five-year outlook ticked up to 2.8%.
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441
RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q1/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628
Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:
- Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 30 incliner, 3 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:
Q2/24: 6 positive and 3 negative closes
- April; 16 negative and 6 positive closes
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.76% and the XBI was up +2.04%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +1.04 point or +8.29% at 13.59
Monday’s Closing Down (11 of 11):
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.64 after Friday’s -$0.05),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.58 after Friday’s -$0.90),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.38 after Friday’s +$0.19),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.28 after Friday’s -$0.39,
- Generation bio (GBIO -$0.15),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.13),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.09),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.01),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.04),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.04),
- Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO -$0.01),
Flat (2):
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped
- Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN after Friday's +$0.07),
Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 22):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$44.48 after Friday’s -$2.38),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.76 after Friday’s -$1.28),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.35 after Friday’s -$1.64),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.12 after Friday’s +$1.53),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.96 after Friday’s -$0.40),
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.81),
- Agenus (AGEN +$0.60 after Friday’s -$1.23),
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.45),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.42 after Friday’s -$0.55
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.39)
Q2/24 – May
(5/13) Monday closed positive with 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: It’s just a matter of timing this week as inevitable inflation data deflates … with speculative activities.
- In addition to these key inflation metrics, investors have … Retail Sales for April, Empire State manufacturing and a Homebuilder Confidence survey — both for May — will add to this week’s data haul.
Investors will be closely following Tuesday's April Producer Price Index. On Wednesday eyes will be on April's Consumer Price Index data and April retail sales. Headline CPI is expected to rise 3.4% year over year while the core reading, which strips out food and energy, is expected to increase 3.6%.
This Monday morning, a consumer credit report is out from Equifax. In it, we see consumer credit delinquencies are on the rise — +0.4% for Autos and +0.9% for Bankcards were the two most conspicuous prints — depict a growing credit problem, with higher price points and interest rates meeting something of a tapering off in wage earnings.
- Gone are the pandemic-era high levels of savings rates; the American consumer, while not as indebted as prior to the pandemic (2019) and well off the 2009 level credit concerns, nevertheless show an increasing level of debt.
- This is not expected to be much of a problem, however, unless employment levels suddenly soften. <ZACKS>
I believe investors are sidelined with volume being nearly flat on the Nasdaq while electronic trading and algorithms “took a small bite” for a bit for the upside as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.49%.
Today:
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) reported a Q1/24 net loss of -$10.8 M or -$0.08 per share with a cash position of $156 M, ATM usage of $3.8 M, no revenue and a runway until late’26
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) reported a Q1/24 net loss of -$11.3 M or -$0.20 per share with a cash position of $400.5 M, revenue of $19.5 M and a runway until 2027
After last week’s earnings …
As I have written, “this week continues the Q1 financial performance elements of cell and gene therapy companies that sheds light on depreciated share value with … some uplift today, Monday, 5/13.”
Reporting: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628
- Prime Medicine (PRME) Q1 loss, missed EPS and revenue estimates
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS) Q1 loss, miss revenue
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE) Q1 loss miss revenue
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) Q1 loss, miss revenue
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) Q1 loss, 0 revenue
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA): Q1 loss, EPS miss as revenue surpasses
- bluebird bio (BLUE): Q1 loss, delayed due to current and past restatements
- CRBU: Q1 loss, misses revenue and EPS estimate
- VCEL: Q1 loss, surprise revenue up
- VERV: Q1 loss, tops revenue and EPS estimates
- EDIT: Q1 loss, revenue miss
- RARE: Q1 loss
- SAGE: Q1 loss
- MDXG: Q1 loss
- AXGN: Q1 loss
- BPMC: net income
- BEAM: Q1 loss, no revenue
- IONS: Q1 loss, misses revenue and EPS estimate
- AGEN: Q1 loss, misses revenue and EPS estimate
- ALNY: Q1 loss, tops revenue estimate and narrow miss on EPS
- AXGN: Q1 loss, lags revenue estimates
- BPMC: Q1 net incomes, surpasses revenue estimates
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BLMC)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Mesoblast (MESO)
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
