May 24, 2024 5:29pm

Surfing with a tow-ropes initially kept the sector from sucking sand as the tide eventually went out

Anyone who reads my posts, knows that I am about making money in a portfolio, no matter what happens in the sector

Never leave an investor uninformed!

The week in review, and a happy long weekend to all; be safe, see you as month closes, we all need day’s off line

The sector is being driven by the same theme - until we get some optimism, the path of least resistance is lower.

RegMed Investors (RMi) pre-open: “sector suffered severe breakdown on Thursday. Time to get it on for Memorial Day weekend and roll to hot dogs, burgers, beers and “tines” for me,” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13474

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +4.33 points or +0.01%, the S&P closed UP +36.88 points or +0.70% while the Nasdaq closed UP +184.76 points or +1.10%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes traded forward, Friday at a fresh record high outweighing worries that the Fed will delay interest rate cuts.

While the cell and gene therapy hung ten on the barrel wave and then wiped-out after the “cleanup set - a set of powerful waves that clears the lineup” waves ended the session.

Economic Data Docket: Durable goods orders rose 0.7% for the month, slightly below the 0.8% increase in March but far better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a 1% decline. Excluding transportation items, orders still accelerated 0.4%. However, new orders were flat, excluding defense.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index results released showed that consumers hold greater uncertainty about future buying plans, which could pressure spending in the summer.

  • Although the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May beat estimates, the reading fell on a monthly basis to the lowest level since November 2023. The final reading, posted Friday, was 69.1, versus 77.2 in April.

 

All-time Low:

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV) at $5.28

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats 
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close of 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2 flats 
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats 
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 16 incliner, 16 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 9 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 14 incliner, 17 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close of 15 incliners, 16 decliners and 4 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 9 positive and 9 negative closes

  • April; 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.03% and the XBI was down -0.55%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.64% and the XBI was down -3.10%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was UP +0.72% and the XBI was UP +0.66%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.44% and the XBI was down -0.76%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.60% and the XBI was up +1.22%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.85 change or +6.66% at 11.92
  • Thursday was up +0.60 change or +4.87% at 12.89
  • Wednesday was up +0.38 change t or +3.20% at 12.24
  • Tuesday was down -0.26point or -2.14% at 11.89
  • Monday was up +0.15 point or +1.25% at 12.14

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 19):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.62 after Thursday’s -$1.52, Wednesday’s +$1.28, Tuesday’s -$0.62 and Monday’s +$0.84),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.72),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.49 after Thursday’s -$1.07, Wednesday’s +$2.04, Tuesday’s -$0.71 and Monday’s -$0.75
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.23),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.20),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.06),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.05),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0407 after Thursday’s +$0.060, Wednesday’s -$0.048 and Tuesday’s +$0.053),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.04),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.04),

Flat (3):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN $0.00 after Wednesday’s $0.00 after Tuesday’s +$0.15 and Monday’s $0.00),
  • uniQure NV (QURE)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 13):

  • Agenus (AGEN +$1.27 after Thursday’s +$0.26 after Wednesday’s +$0.79 after Tuesday’s +$0.42 and Monday’s -$0.16),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.63 after Thursday’s -$0.90 after Wednesday’s +$0.20),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.45),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.44 after Thursday’s -$1.58 after Wednesday’s +$0.50 after Tuesday’s -$0.95 and Monday’s -$0.34),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.42 after Thursday’s -$0.70 after Wednesday’s -$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.63 and Monday’s -$0.70),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.31 after Thursday’s -$0.87),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.24 after Thursday’s -$2.06 after Wednesday’s -$1.20 after Tuesday’s +$0.40 and Monday’s +$2.78),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.16),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.13),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.09),

 

Q2/24 – May

  • Friday closed negative with 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • (5/20) Monday closed negative with 15 incliners, 16 decliners and 4 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: “Venimus nos emit et vendidit nos rursus” – “We have bought and sold again"

The sector is floating DOWN on not a lot of news. There have been plenty of switches noting that trading volume has been low recently.

As I stated in Wednesday’s a.m., “every time, I read about record market highs I squint … I consider bottom fishing and building cash at the same time.”

 

Retail trader sentiment lower on inflation worries. Bullish sentiment has dropped among retail traders in Q2. The survey reported bullish outlook among traders fell to 46% from 53% in the previous quarter. Bearish sentiment gained across all age groups, particularly among young and mid-life investors. < <Charles Schwab Trader Sentiment Survey>

Geopolitical concerns will weigh more on markets. As Q1 earnings season winds down, investors will shift more of their attention to geopolitical concerns in the next few months before the next round of earnings. < SimCorp>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:  

  • Friday: Agenus (AGEN), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Thursday: Agenus (AGEN), Mesoblast (MESO) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Agenus (AGEN)
  • Tuesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.