June 27, 2024 4:51pm

Triggered by pockets of volatility coupled with some semi-attractive buying opportunities

The end of Q2 and 1stH (half), presidential debate tonight, the core PCE price index release Is coming tomorrow Friday

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +36.26 points or +0.09%, the S&P closed UP +4.97 points or +0.09% while the Nasdaq closed UP +53.53 points or +0.30%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes traded to the upside on Thursday as we wait for inflation data clues as to when the Fed will begin to lower interest rates or not.

Economists expect core PCE rose 0.1% month over month and 2.6% from the year-earlier period.

“Should the PCE disappoint, stagflation headlines will hit the tape, but if estimates hold or surprise with cooler data, it should help the market ease into July,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Initial jobless claims edged lower, demand for long-lasting big-ticket items was better than expected and Q1 economic growth rose a bit as did inflation for the period.

  • The Commerce Department’s third and final estimate for Q1 gross domestic product showed a seasonally adjusted annualized gain of 1.4%. That was 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous estimate but in line with the Dow Jones estimate.
  • Chain-weighted prices rose 3.1% in Q1, up from 3% previously. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Federal Reserve pegs as its preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% on all-items and 3.7% on the core, both 0.1 percentage point above the previous estimate.
  • First-time claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending June 22 totaled 233,000, down 6,000 from the previous week and below the 235,000 estimate.
  • Continuing claims, which run a week behind, rose to 1.839 million, the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021.
  • New orders for “durable goods,” or long-lasting items such as aircraft, appliances and computers, unexpectedly increased 0.1% in May, below the downwardly revised 0.2% increase in April but better than the estimate for a 1% decline, according to the Census Bureau. Excluding defense, new orders were off 0.2% and down 0.1% ex-transportation. <Jeff Cox, CNBC>

 

Metrics & Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close of 18 incliners, 13 decliners and 4 flats

  • the IBB was down -0.01% and the XBI was up +0.73%
  • the VIX down -0.31 point or -2.47% at 12.24

 

52-week low:

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV) at $4.85

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

  • June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 11 negative closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (13 of 13):

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.99 after Wednesday’s +$0.13),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.25 after Wednesday’s +$0.68 after Tuesday’s -$1.99 after Monday’s +$1.70),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.86 after Wednesday’s +$0.59 after Tuesday’s -$0.58 after Monday’s +$1.89),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.47 after Wednesday’s +$0.70 after Tuesday’s +$2.32 after Monday’s +$2.85),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.28 after Wednesday’s +$0.22 after Tuesday’s +$0.05),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.26 after Wednesday’s -$0.21),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.15),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.09 after Wednesday’s -$0.66 after Tuesday’s -$0.36 after Monday’s +$0.67),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.07 after Wednesday’s -$0.16),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.04),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0308),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0248),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01),

Flat (4):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN $0.00 after Tuesday’s +$0.25 with 100 shares traded)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) – under $1.00

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 18):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$4.60 after Wednesday’s -$2.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.45 after Monday’s +$1.87)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.83 after Wednesday’s +$5.02 after Tuesday’s +$17.26 after Monday’s +$57.20
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.15 after Wednesday’s +$0.87 after Tuesday’s -$1.30 after Monday’s +$1.19) 
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.89 after Wednesday’s +$0.68 after Tuesday’s +$0.43 after Monday’s -$0.18)
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.77 after Wednesday’s -$0.65 after Tuesday’s -$0.44 after Monday’s -$0.28),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.26 after Wednesday’s -$0.82 after Tuesday’s -$0.35),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.21),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.14 after Wednesday’s $0.00)
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.14)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.12 after Wednesday’s-$0.81 after Tuesday’s -$0.47 after Monday’s +$0.77),

 

The week/month to date:

  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 18 incliners, 13 decliners and 4 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats
  • (6/24) Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a positive close of 22 incliners, 10 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 10 incliners, 21 decliners and 4 flats
  • Wednesday was a market holiday
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • (6/17) Monday ended with a negative close of 8 incliners, 23 decliners and 4 flats
  • Friday ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 14 incliners, 18 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • (6/10) Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 7 decliners and 4 flats
  • Friday ended with a negative close of 7 incliners, 24 decliners and 4 flats
  • Thursday ended with a negative close of 8 incliners, 23 decliners and 4 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • (6/3) Monday ended with a positive close of 18 incliners, 14 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Sector equites (within my cover ed 35 large group) flipped upward as the afternoon session wore-on after diving on Wednesday as investors await fresh inflation data on Friday with the release of May’s personal consumption expenditures price index.

Volume rose on the Nasdaq versus the same time on Wednesday.

 

Never overlook the ripple effect of negative/positive spurts in the sectors daily sessions.

  • As previously reported, weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended June 22, were 233,000 vs. the 236,000 expected and below a revised 239,000 from the prior week.

 

I have written to become more cautious on sector equities …

  • “Investors need to reassess their portfolio strategies… as I had stated: We are also about to see share pricing rotation or profit taking as Q2 and 1st H (first half) ends this Friday and as sector companies prepare for LPS (loss-per-share) quarterly earnings releases.  So, what are share pricing themes that investors can be comfortable with for a short or near- term time horizon i.e., Q3?” <me>

 

Some part of the why:

The cell and gene therapy sector were a mixed bag through the session (@ 11;30 a.m. – 16 down/15 up and 4 flats) on Thursday as investors assessed fresh economic data ahead of an inflation reading key to Federal Reserve policy.

  • Whether or not this or last weeks and a review of May’s month’s volatility in the sector is NOT the start of something deeper, but … is a sum of what remains to be seen in the next few months.
  • The convergence of risks ties share pricing, inflation-oriented releases, politics, trading with the lack of news has only increased the concern about short and near-term performance.
  • Volatility spikes in (the sector and) markets usually caused by uncertainty over the presidential race, is likely still a few months away. Research from Truist co-CIO Keith Lerner shows that the CBOE Volatility Index, known by its ticker as simply the VIX (^VIX), is usually quiet during election years until a big spike in October. <Yahoo Finance>
  • The key question for the Fed is whether this softening is yet another sign of normalization in the labor market or an indicator that higher interest rates could seriously harm the US economy.

 

Let get to 3 things that you need to know for Wednesday as you prep for the next trading day …

  • 4th week—2 positive and 2 negative closes
  • 3rd week of June, the cell and gene therapy sector experienced 1 market holiday, 3 negative closes and ended Friday with a positive close as options were covered
  • 2nd week of June … negative closes on Friday and Thursday after Wednesday ascended positively as Tuesday drifted lower, retreating from Monday’s highs.
  • 1st week of June: Friday and Thursday ended in the toilet after Wednesday’s positive close Tuesday negative close following Monday’s positive close.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)  
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Prime medicine (PRME)

The worst three (3) in the session:   

  • Thursday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)  
  • Monday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Mesoblast (MESO)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.