July 1, 2024 8:21am

Don’t buy or sell, wait until you see the green of the upside is a bit like the famous order "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes" which was popularized in stories about the battle of Bunker Hill.

A weak aftermarket from Friday. Will July, be a pre-supposed vacation month filled with choppy trading? 

News: uniQure NV (QURE +$0.11 pre-open) its commercial gene therapy operations in Lexington, MA, a strategic manufacturing facility and a world-class team of employees sells to Genezen, a contract development and manufacturing organization or CDMO; from Indianapolis, Indiana

Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive, 1 Negative and 1 Sell into Strength indications

A daily analytic read-out from RMi is constructed of specific warnings challenging share pricing situations

Never leave an investor uninformed

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today, not tomorrow or yesterday

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.24% or (+95 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.25% or (+14 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.26% or (+51 points)

  • Stock futures rose Monday as the 2H /24 began,
  • European markets rose,
  • Asia-Pacific markets started the 2H/24 on a positive note.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes ticked lower Friday as traders digested the PCE price index data that indicated slowing inflation, as well as better-than-expected consumer sentiment figures counting down to the end of what has been a strong 1st H/24.

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -45.20 points or -0.12%, the S&P closed DOWN -22.39 points or -0.41% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -126.08 points or -0.71%

In Q3, the S&P added +3.9%, the Nasdaq +8.3%, while the Dow lost -1.7%.

For the 1st H (half), the S&P popped +14.1%, Nasdaq jumped +18.1%, the Dow underperformed only adding 3.8%.

Economic Data Docket:  S&P PMI manufacturing and ISM manufacturing data for June are due out Monday, along with may construction spending.

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “the close with 5 ends. The end of the week, Q2 and 1stH (half), presidential debate and the core PCE price index release.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13519

 

Q3/24 – 1st session

Q2/24: 

  • June – 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes
  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Insight is about understanding perception

Sell into Strength:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Agenus (AGEN0 closed up +$2.63 after Thursday’s -$0.09, Wednesday’s -$0.66, Tuesday’s -$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.67) with a positive +$0.22 or +1.31% pre-open

 

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.55 after Thursday’s -$0.86, Wednesday’s +$0.59, Tuesday’s -$0.58 and Monday’s +$1.89 with a negative +$0.09 or +0.38% pre-open

uniQure NV (QURE) closed -$0.06 with a positive +$0.11 pre-open - from news above.

 

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.43 after Thursday’s -$0.47, Wednesday’s +$0.70, Tuesday’s +$2.32 and Monday’s +$2.85 with a negative -$0.66 or -1.38% pre-open

 

The BOTTOM LINE: In July, wait until you see the green of the upside is a bit like the “famous order "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes" which was popularized in stories about the battle of Bunker Hill.

Easy for me, a mid-week holiday and another birthday … which I intend to take off a few days/sessions also with my brother’s birthday on 7/6.

The real issue is being OVERSOLD yet sentiment and breadth is in the toilet and due are Q2 LPS (loss per-share) boding releases.

Interesting stat:

  • Since 1928, July has emerged as the best month of the year, on average, in terms of stock-market performance.
  • My issue the Q2 is over, and many sector companies (of my covered group) are preparing the release Q2 earnings and 1st H LPS (loss-per-share) “numbers”
  • July begins what is usually the Nasdaq’s worst four months of the year (especially in an election year) and has averaged a monthly gain on that index of less than 1% since 1971. Over that time frame, July has been the sixth best performing Nasdaq month, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Last week:

  • Friday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 18 incliners, 13 decliners and 4 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a negative close of 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats
  • (6/24) Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats

The month in review:

  • 4th week coming … 2 positive and 3 negative closes as Q2 comes to and end on Friday.
  • 3rd week of June, 3rd session … the cell and gene therapy sector experienced 1 positive and 3 negative closes with 1 market holiday
  • 2nd week of June, 5th session … negative closes on Friday and Thursday after Wednesday ascended positively as Tuesday drifted lower, retreating from Monday’s highs.
  • 1st week of June: Friday and Thursday ended in the toilet after Wednesday’s positive close Tuesday negative close following Monday’s positive close.

There is still the issue of the lack of catalysts as we head into Q2 earnings season.

Watch the “numbers” measure the daily, weekly, and monthly charts can filter out or lessen the noise of back-and-forth share pricing from sector rotation.

  • The short-term moving averages help you identify the momentum of the trend — that is, overbought or oversold

 

“Stuff” happens:

Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT) said Friday that the FDA REJECTED its gene therapy for an ultra-rare, sometimes fatal immuno-deficiency syndrome, saying that RCKT needed to submit more information to prove it can …. safely manufacture the product.

  • The Complete Response Letter (CRL) responded to Rocket’s Biologics License Application for KRESLADI™ wherein the FDA requested limited additional Chemistry Manufacturing and Controls (CMC) information to complete its review.
  • Positive top-line data from the global P1/2 study of KRESLADI™ demonstrated 100% overall survival at 12 months post-infusion (and for the entire duration of follow-up) for all nine LAD-I patients with 18 to 42 months of available follow-up. Data also showed large decreases compared with pre-treatment history in the incidences of significant infections, combined with evidence of resolution of LAD-I-related skin lesions and restoration of wound repair capabilities. All primary and secondary endpoints were met, and KRESLADI™ was well tolerated in all patients with no treatment-related serious adverse events.

Even if the FDA’s issues with RCKT’s applications are easily resolved, the rejection is another setback for a field that’s faced notable clinical, regulatory and business hurdles.

  • Manufacturing remains a challenging area for developers, as experienced by Abeona Therapeutics, which saw its skin disease cell therapy rejected by the FDA in April. < BioPharma Dive>

 

A quasi-positive note:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) shareholders have enjoyed a good week with stock up 47%; with only a downside spiral of -$4.00 on Friday, although holders sold US$7.7 m worth of stock in the last 12 months.

  • While, this could be a warning indicator of vulnerabilities in the future.
  • Friday’s after market indicated a negative -$1.35 or -0.56% slide.

 

I’m STILL not FEELING a bullish optimism --- it’s only an up party for visits from “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs”!

  • Investors should be making SMALL buys to add exposure and wait for losers to recapture some of their past heights in your portfolio. But if you are heavily invested, holding steady is a sound strategy as well.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.