July 17, 2024 4:45pm

I kept saying the downside was due, as uncle algo and electronic trading dwarfs thirsted for profit  

I believe that investors are on the sideline as trading take profits, I would expect to see this continue until sector earnings begin on 7/31

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +243.60 points or +0.59%, the S&P closed DOWN -78.93 points or -1.39% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -512.41 points or -2.77%

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 2 incliner, 29 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats

  • the IBB was down -1.05% and the XBI was down -2.06%
  • the VIX was up +1.29 point or +9.78% at 14.49

Economic Data Docket: Housing data in June for new construction came in better than expected … Starts totaled 1.353 million for the month, better than the 1.3 million Dow Jones estimate and up 3% from May. Building permits were at 1.446 million, topping the outlook for 1.4 million and beating May by 3.4%. Totals for both permits and starts were revised higher in May.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes were mixed as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated on Wednesday as the rotation into more rate-sensitive names rose.

The Nasdaq’s Wednesday tumble put it on pace for its worst session since 2022.

The Russell 2000 slipped -0.07%, putting its five-day win streak at risk. Still, the small cap-focused index has climbed almost 10% over the last five trading days as the market rally broadened out.

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q3/24

  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 3 negative, 1 neutral (last Friday) and 7 positive closes

Q2/24 -June: 1 market holiday, 7 positive and 12 negative closes

  • May – 1 holiday, 11 positive and 12 negative closes
  • April - 16 negative and 6 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 29):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$9.81 after Tuesday’s -$6.35 after Monday’s -$4.33),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$6.14 after Tuesday’s +$0.97 after Monday’s +$1.75),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.27 after Tuesday’s +$5.29 after Monday’s -$0.44),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.88 after Tuesday’s +$2.27 after Monday’s -$0.43),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.38),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.74),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.73 after Tuesday’s +$1.08 after Monday’s +$0.65),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$2.37 after Monday’s +$1.35),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.41 after Tuesday’s +$0.92),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.36 after Tuesday’s +$1.67 and Monday’s -$1.28 as CFO departs to old employer, JP Morgan),

Flat (2):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) – dropped)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) – under $1.00

Wednesday’s Closing Up (4 of 4):

  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.03),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$2.10),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$ after Tuesday’s +$1.34),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$ 0.01 after Tuesday’s $0.00)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  the wave ended at the shore line as the upside wiped-out …

Sector pessimism flooded optimism Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday with 2 positive close this week (so far) after last week closed with 5 session positive closes.

At the same time, political matters continued to preoccupy a market betting that former President Trump is an even clearer frontrunner for the White House after he survived an assassination attempt over the weekend.

 

US stocks were mixed Wednesday, with the Nasdaq dropping sharply as techs came under dual pressure from worries about US export curbs on China and Donald Trump's stance on Taiwan. The blue-chip Dow, meanwhile, quietly closed at another record high. <Yahoo Finance>

 

 Reiterating from Tuesday and Monday, I stated that money would come-off the table … and it DID!

  • The cell and gene therapy sector STILL looks frothy, there’s NO indication yet that sector earnings can’t support these valuations.
  •  When, there’s slippage it’s going to have an amplified effect – it was …

 

Q3 and July to date:

  • Wednesday: ended with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 2 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 20 incliners, 9 decliners and 6 flats
  • Friday ended with a positive close of 22 incliners, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday ended with a positive close of 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday ended with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday ended with a positive close of 19 incliners, 12 decliners and 4 flats
  • Monday ended with a positive close of 24 incliners, 8 decliners and 3 flats
  • Friday ended with a neutral close of 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday was a market holiday
  • Wednesday was a day off
  • Tuesday ended with a negative close of 6 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • (7/1) Monday ended with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

So, I totally appreciate the ascension of the cell and gene therapy sector and, I respect the upside but, am aware of when electronic trading will strike the upside … always there is past evidence of a slowdown coming (it’s the contrarian in me) and it's going to become even more thin as we go forward.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Wednesday: AxoGen (AXGN), Agenus (AGEN) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionia Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

The worst three (3) in the session:   2 today

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.