November 8, 2024 4:34pm

As I wrote, Thursday a.m., “volatility will kill, ya’ sooner or later. Sell into dramatic updraft and build the cash position.”  Question evolves, what’s sustainable as earnings continue to release?

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) Chronicles plunges -$0.11 to $3.34 as President-elect Trump could inject new levels of volatility after past “angry period” towards China’s policies. Will there be MORE to come, as major management and Board members are from or reside in Beijing, PRC; U.S. investors BEWARE?

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: shaky … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13690

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +259.65 points or +0.59%, the S&P closed UP +22.44 points or +0.38% while the Nasdaq closed UP +17.32 points or +0.09%

  • Indexes stayed up, with the Dow and S&P continuing to jumped (new records) on Friday extending post-election rally
  • Thanks in large part to Wednesday’s huge rally following Trump’s victory

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge came in at 73 in November, rising to the highest level since April. The reading was also better than the consensus expectation of 71 and up from 70.5 in October.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 19 incliners, 14 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived on Friday and Thursday after jumping positive Wednesday and Tuesday after negative close on Monday

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +0.56% and the XBI was UP +1.13% while the VIX was down -0.28 points or -1.84% at 14.92

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 3 negative and 3 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 18):

  • Moderna (MRNA -$3.45 after Thursday’s -$1.52, Tuesday’s -$1.48, Tuesday’s -$0.25 and Monday’s -$0.97),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.61 after Thursday’s - $2.06 after earnings release),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.56 after Thursday’s +$1.78, Wednesday’s +$2.08, Tuesday’s +$5.67 and Monday’s +$1.18),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.26 after Thursday’s +$1.16),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.21 after Thursday’s -$0.19, Wednesday’s -$0.08, Tuesday’s -$0.12 and Monday’s -$0.09),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.13 after Thursday’s -$0.24),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.12),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.11 after Thursday’s $0.00, Wednesday’s $0.00, Tuesday’s -$0.40 and Monday’s +$0.15),
  • Caribou BioSciences (CRBU -$0.10 after Thursday’s +$0.03),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.07),

Flat (2):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Prime Medicine (PRME)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 15):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.21 after Thursday’s -$0.79 after Tuesday’s +$7,72 after Tuesday’s -$4.66 and Monday’s -$3.96),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$3.97 after Thursday’s +$1.99 after Wednesday’s +$3.29 after Tuesday’s +$0.38 after Monday’s +$0.38),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$2.54 after Thursday’s +$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$3.58),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.96 after Thursday’s -$0.52 after Tuesday’s +$2.69, Tuesday’s -$0.43 and Monday’s +$1.43),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.73),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.73 after Thursday’s -$0.58),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.54),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.36 after Thursday’s +$0.27, Wednesday’s +$1.10, Tuesday’s +$0.50 and Monday’s -$0.30),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.10 after Thursday’s -$0.37),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies ADVM +$0.10)

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -0.59 points or -0.00%, the S&P closed UP +44.06 points or +0.74% while the Nasdaq closed UP +285.99 points or +1.51%

  • Indexes jumped on Thursday extending post-election rally
  • The bond market has also been volatile, with Treasury yields falling Thursday after spiking in the previous session.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The rate decision from the Fed for 25 basis points to a range of 4.5-4.75%

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliners, 13 decliners and 5 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived on Thursday after jumping positive Wednesday and Tuesday after negative close on Monday

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +0.97% and the XBI was UP +0.54% while the VIX was down -0.99 points or -6.08% at 15.28

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +1,508.05 points or +3.57%, the S&P closed UP +146.28 points or +2.53% while the Nasdaq closed UP +544.29 points or +2.95%

  • Indexes jumped on Wednesday to new strata as investors as traders

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Bracing for the rate decision from the Fed on Thursday

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector jumped positive Wednesday and Tuesday after negative close on Monday

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.06% and the XBI was UP +1.81% while the VIX was down -4.22 points or -20.60% at 16.27

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +427.28 points or +1.02%, the S&P closed UP +70.07 points or +1.23% while the Nasdaq closed UP +259.19 points or +1.43%

  • Indexes jumped on Tuesday as investors as traders awaited the results from a high-stakes U.S. presidential election

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Bracing for the election results and latest rate decision from the Fed on Thursday.             

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliners, 14 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector jumped positive after negative on Monday

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.55% and the XBI was UP +1.42% while the VIX was down -1.46 points or -6.64% at 20.52

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -257.59 points or -0.61%, the S&P closed DOWN -16.11 points or -0.28% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -59.93 points or 0.33-%

  • Indexes dumped on Monday as investors prepped for the presidential election and a potential Fed rate cut later this week 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Bracing for the latest rate decision from the Fed on Thursday.     

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector jumped after negative on Friday, 11/1 having dived (last Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday) after a positive close on Monday

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.05% and the XBI was down -0.05% while the VIX was up +0.10 points or +0.46% at 21.98

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  new month of November, 6th session … 3 positives and 3 negative close with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

  • Friday's rise in the Dow leading slightly, soaring beyond the 44,000-point mark; S&P 500 was powered by the utilities and real estate sectors, which had lagged post-election. Tech stocks took a breather following Thursday's rally.

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are STILL and then it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any further collapse of share pricing... by end-of-year rotations.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Thursday: AxoGen (AXGN), Moderna (MRNA) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Moderna (MRNA) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.