November 21, 2024 4:51pm

While econs trend sideways

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: lack of expectation as depreciated share pricing realities set-in

… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13707

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +461.88 points or +1.06%, the S&P closed UP +31.60 points or +0.53% while the Nasdaq closed UP +6.28 points or +0.03%

  • Despite the all-encompassing focus on Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Jobless claims numbers showed the labor market at least holding steady, if not strengthening,
  • Continuing claims for jobless insurance climbed to 1.908 M from 1.872 M last week and 25,000 more than the street’s estimate of 1.883 M.
  • The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index of activity in the region slowed to -5.5 in November against economists’ estimate of +6.9 and October’s +10.3.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat

  • A better session as the oversold were recognized

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +1.26%, the XBI was up +0.29% while the VIX was down -0.29 points or 1.69% at 16.87

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 9 negative and 6 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.99 after Wednesday’s +$14.52, Tuesday’s +$2.94 and Monday’s -$3.29),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.46 after Wednesday’s +$1.65),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.97 after Wednesday’s +$0.29),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.91 after Wednesday’s -$0.80, Tuesday’s +$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.07),
  • Vericel VCEL -$0.55 after Wednesday’s +$1.43),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.45),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.42),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.38 after Wednesday’s +$1.27, Tuesday’s +$1.35 and Monday’s -$0.97),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.15),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.15 after Wednesday’s -$0.49, Tuesday’s +$0.18 and Monday’s +$0.60),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 18):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.81 after Wednesday’s -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s +$1.49),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.31 after Wednesday’s -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s +$1.49),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.68 after Wednesday’s -$1.01),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.41 after Wednesday’s -$0.74 after Tuesday’s +$1.73 after Monday’s +$0.28),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.38 after Wednesday’s +$2.57, Tuesday’s +$2.00 and Monday’s -$0.55),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.27 after Wednesday’s -$0.15 after Tuesday’s +$0.11 after Monday’s +$0.15),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.20 after Wednesday’s +$0.15 after Tuesday’s -$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.16),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.19 after Wednesday’s +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.06),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.16 after Wednesday’s -$0.18),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$ after Wednesday’s +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.25),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Slowly the cell and gene therapy sector flees from the oversold

  • Were shorts eroding confidence minimizing conviction; short selling aims to make a profit on declines?
  • Although volume of the upsiders is just under and some over the average 3-month volume

… While the Nasdaq pared earlier losses to gain 0.3%.

On the economic front, weekly jobless claims released came in at 213,000, a decline from the prior week.

  • Investors are weighing the Fed's appetite for interest rate cuts.
  • Traders are now pricing in a 44% chance of the Fed holding pat at its December meeting, up from about 28% a week ago, per the CME FedWatch tool.

Still some slippage; sector equities recover to a degree from losses in trading … as recognition rose for the oversold.

November’s 15th session … 6 positive and 9 negative closes earnings’ close out the season.

 

From Wednesday’s post: It’s worth taking look at pipeline and proximity to clinical results versus investment risk. Raise the conviction flag, insider buys are needed, not just option execution but, “true” holds

 

Keeping the definition in the news: Many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about "animal spirits" having come into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/21 – Thursday: closed positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/20 – Wednesday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 11/19 – Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/18 – Monday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/15 – Friday: closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/4 – Thursday: closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.

  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Moderna (MRNA) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Mesoblast (MESO)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP
  • Wednesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.