November 27, 2024 4:42pm

Cell and gene therapy sector continues to “roll” positive

The U.S. market is closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and set to close early on Friday

1 session left in November, watch for some downslides

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

Happy Thanksgiving ... giving thanks and be SAFE! …

https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/8708

 

News: Agenus (AGEN +$0.17) has secured a $22 M non-amortizing mortgage, backed by its Berkeley-based Biologics CMC facility and its 66-acre biomanufacturing-zoned property in Vacaville, California. The deal, facilitated by L&L Capital, provides $20 M in net proceeds after closing costs and interest reserve, boosting Agenus’ cash position ahead of anticipated further cash infusions in the coming months. Shares traded higher on Wednesday.

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -1368.25 points or -0.31%, the S&P closed DOWN -22.89 points or -0.38% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -115.10 points or -0.60%

  • Indexes fell in light trading on Wednesday as investors took some risk off the table following big November gains
  • The Dow has climbed more than 7% in November, on track for its biggest monthly gain of 2024. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each jumped more than 5%     

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies 

  • Personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, inflation gauge rose +0.2% in October and +2.3% on an annualized basis, in line with expectations; excluding food and energy, the so-called core measure increased +0.3% month over month and +2.8% compared with a year ago, also matching consensus forecasts.          
  • Initial U.S. jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 213,000 for the week that ended Nov. 23, a sign the U.S. labor market remains tight. Economists expected claims to come in at 215,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week that ended Nov. 16 increased by 9,000 to 1.907 M.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 21 incliners, 11 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flats

  • The upside stays positive

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.36%, the XBI was up +1.15% while the VIX was down -0.04 points or -0.28% at 14.06

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 9 negative and 10 positive closes    

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (8 of 8):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.99),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.48),
  • Solid Bioscience (SLDB -$0.09),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.04),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.03),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.01)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$0.17 after Monday’s -$0.06),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.18),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 26):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.53 after Tuesday’s -$1.09 after Monday’s +$2.52),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.36 after Tuesday’s -$0.81 after Monday’s +$1.60),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.34 after Tuesday’s -$1.61 after Monday’s +$2.56),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.37),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.77 after Tuesday’s+$0.24 after Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.53 after Tuesday’s -$0.09 after Monday’s +$1.45),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.53),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.49 after Tuesday’s +$0.26),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.48 after Tuesday’s -$0.06 after Monday’s +$0.49)
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.76 after Monday’s -$0.28),

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +123.74 points or +0.28%, the S&P closed UP +34.26 points or +0.57% while the Nasdaq closed UP +119.46 points or +0.63%

  • Indexes closed in record territory as “Markets have become a lot more comfortable with the prospects of these tariffs being more bluster and more negotiating tactics than actual implementation” <J Cox, Harris Financial>

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies 

  • The Fed meeting released said it expects interest rate cuts in the future, but to only expect them “gradually” as Fed officials appeared divided at their meeting
  • The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 111.3 in October to 111.7 in November, reaching its highest level in nearly 2 years, aided by an improving labor market and easing concerns about a potential recession.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 20 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats

  • Up, down, up, down and up again through the sector share pricing during the session

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.32%, the XBI was up +1.22% while the VIX was down -0.49 points or -3.36% at 14.11

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +440.06 points or +0.99%, the S&P closed UP +18.03 points or +0.30% while the Nasdaq closed UP +51.18 points or +0.27%

  • Touched new records on Monday, kicking off the shortened trading week

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • For once, NONE

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 31 incliners, 1 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat

  • A wider sector rally than Friday

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +1.95%, the XBI was up +1.39% while the VIX was down -0.46 points or -3.03% at 14.78

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector continued the run from Tuesday and Monday’s run.

The small cap-focused Russell 2000 has surged 10.4% in November. That would mark the index’s best month going back to December 2023, when it finished just over 12% higher.

Never forget end of year tax selling and portfolio rotation due to recommendations

Get your blinders’ off … November’s 19th session … 10 positive and 9 negative closes earnings’ close out the season.

 

Valuations have gone from low valuation to higher valued to not so quite overvalued to bordering on frothy. <I agree on frothy> ...

  • “Everything feels very stretched to me, particularly in the context of rising long-term interest rates. I mean, if you go back 2 months ago, the ten-year Treasury yield (^TNX) was at 3.6%. Now, we're at 4.25%. We had been as high as almost 4.5% not long ago. That's a big increase in interest rates, but despite that, asset prices, equity prices, [and] everything else's values have risen. So, I do think this is something that is an increasing risk." <Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics, Yahoo Finance>

 

Ranking, almost the end of November:

  • 11/27 - Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/26 - Tuesday: closed positive with 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/25 - Monday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/22 - Friday closed positive with 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/21 – Thursday: closed positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/20 – Wednesday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 11/19 – Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/18 – Monday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat

 

An issue going forward re economy, markets and ultimetely the sector, “The US labor market entered a new gear in the second half of 2024. We are in a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment," In the spring of 2022, there were two open jobs for every unemployed person. Now that figure is just a little more than one. In other words, there aren’t as many opportunities out there." < Bank of America's lead economist Aditya Bhave>

  • Job openings for the month of September fell to their lowest level since January 2021, while the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, also dropped to 1.9% from a revised 2% in August. The number of open jobs per unemployed worker stood at 1.09.
  • Despite the rise in the unemployment rate, Bhave and team noted that overall layoffs have remained low, writing that "while the labor market has moderated, it hasn't rolled over."

 

Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.

  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can truly register the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam therapeutics (BEAM) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.