November 29, 2024 2:52pm

With more froth to the downside, I previously wrote it was coming!

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

Week in review and EOM (end-of-month) stats

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

News: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.0272 to $0.405) the FDA has raised concerns about life-threatening <blood cancer> hematologic malignancies in patients treated with Skysona (elivaldogene autotemcel), a gene therapy for early, active cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy (CALD). The agency has received reports of myelodysplastic syndrome and acute myeloid leukemia linked to Skysona, with cases emerging 14 to 92 months post-treatment during clinical trials.

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +188.59 points or +0.42%, the S&P closed UP +33.64 points or +0.56% while the Nasdaq closed UP +157.69 points or +0.83%

  • Indexes ticked higher Friday in a shortened trading day that ended a mixed month for sector equities        

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The end of a winning week and month. November trading largely centered on the postelection rally seen on the back of President-elect Trump’s victory.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with18 incliners, 15 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 16 decliners and 4 flats

•              The upside slipped negative after 5 positive closes and a market holiday close

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -0.04%, the XBI was flat 0.00% while the VIX was down -0.38 points or -2.73% at 13.52

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes             

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 16):

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.70 after Thursday and Wednesday’s +$1.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.37),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.67),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.50 after Thursday and Wednesday’s +$0.77 after Tuesday’s +$0.24 after Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.33 after Thursday, Wednesday’s +$1.34 after Tuesday’s -$1.61 after Monday’s +$2.56),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.18),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.17 after Thursday and Wednesday’s +$0.53 after Tuesday’s -$0.09 after Monday’s +$1.45),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.17),
  • Verve therapeutics (VERV -$0.17),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.09),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.08 after Thursday and Wednesday’s -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.48),

Flat (2):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 15):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.28 after Thursday and Wednesday’s +$0.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.76 after Monday’s -$0.28),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.08),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.99),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.33 after Thursday and Wednesday’s +$1.53 after Tuesday’s -$1.09 after Monday’s +$2.52),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.31),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.19),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.17 after Thursday and Wednesday’s +$1.36 after Tuesday’s -$0.81 after Monday’s +$1.60),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.11),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.09 after Thursday and Wednesday’s -$0.01),

 

Thursday was a market holiday – Thanksgiving

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -1368.25 points or -0.31%, the S&P closed DOWN -22.89 points or -0.38% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -115.10 points or -0.60%

  • Indexes fell in light trading on Wednesday as investors took some risk off the table following big November gains
  • The Dow has climbed more than 7% in November, on track for its biggest monthly gain of 2024. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each jumped more than 5%     

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, inflation gauge rose +0.2% in October and +2.3% on an annualized basis, in line with expectations; excluding food and energy, the so-called core measure increased +0.3% month over month and +2.8% compared with a year ago, also matching consensus forecasts.          
  • Initial U.S. jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 213,000 for the week that ended Nov. 23, a sign the U.S. labor market remains tight. Economists expected claims to come in at 215,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week that ended Nov. 16 increased by 9,000 to 1.907 M.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 21 incliners, 11 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat

  • The upside stays positive

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.36%, the XBI was up +1.15% while the VIX was down -0.04 points or -0.28% at 14.06

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +123.74 points or +0.28%, the S&P closed UP +34.26 points or +0.57% while the Nasdaq closed UP +119.46 points or +0.63%

  • Indexes closed in record territory as “Markets have become a lot more comfortable with the prospects of these tariffs being more bluster and more negotiating tactics than actual implementation” <J Cox, Harris Financial>

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The Fed meeting released said it expects interest rate cuts in the future, but to only expect them “gradually” as Fed officials appeared divided at their meeting
  • The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 111.3 in October to 111.7 in November, reaching its highest level in nearly 2 years, aided by an improving labor market and easing concerns about a potential recession.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 20 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats

  • Up, down, up, down and up again through the sector share pricing during the session

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.32%, the XBI was up +1.22% while the VIX was down -0.49 points or -3.36% at 14.11

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +440.06 points or +0.99%, the S&P closed UP +18.03 points or +0.30% while the Nasdaq closed UP +51.18 points or +0.27%

  • Touched new records on Monday, kicking off the shortened trading week

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • For once, NONE

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 31 incliners, 1 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat

  • A wider sector rally than Friday

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +1.95%, the XBI was up +1.39% while the VIX was down -0.46 points or -3.03% at 14.78

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector slipped to a negative close after positive runs from Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s.

Markets were off on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday and closed at 1 p.m. ET on Friday.

  • Friday trading volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq was less than 2/3rd’s the past 30 days’ daily average.
  • The Dow added 1.4% this week, bringing its gain for November to 7.5%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each advanced 1.1% on the week, ending 2024′s penultimate month higher by more than 5% and 6%, respectively. With those gains, the Dow and S&P 500 notched their best months of 2024.
  • The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 outperformed in November as investors saw the group benefiting from Trump’s potential tax cuts. The Russell 2000 surged 10.8% this month, helped by a gain of 1.2% this week.

 

Never forget end of year tax selling and portfolio rotation due to recommendations are a’comin’!

 

November’s 20th session … 10 positive and 10 negative closes and 1 holiday.

  • Not so fast on current moods, risk-on/off split sentiment gained momentum after the Thanksgiving holiday, fueled by investor. I believe pessimism not optimism as embraced by some … over Q4/24 final month, December for the stem, cell and gene therapy sector U.S. corporations after lifting both the S&P 500 and Dow to fresh record highs. <a Henry’omics>
  • Valuations have gone from low valuation to higher valued to not so quite overvalued to bordering on frothy. <I agree on frothy> ...

 

Ranking of November's end:

  • 11/29 – Friday closed negative with 15 incliner, 16 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/28 – Thursday -Holiday
  • 11/27 - Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/26 - Tuesday: closed positive with 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/25 - Monday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/22 - Friday closed positive with 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/21 – Thursday: closed positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/20 – Wednesday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 11/19 – Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/18 – Monday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/15 – Friday: closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/4 – Thursday: closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

An issue going forward re economy, “The US labor market entered a new gear in the second half of 2024. We are in a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment," In the spring of 2022, there were two open jobs for every unemployed person. Now that figure is just a little more than one. In other words, there aren’t as many opportunities out there." < Bank of America's lead economist Aditya Bhave>

  • Job openings for the month of September fell to their lowest level since January 2021, while the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, also dropped to 1.9% from a revised 2% in August. The number of open jobs per unemployed worker stood at 1.09.
  • Despite the rise in the unemployment rate, Bhave and team noted that overall layoffs have remained low, writing that "while the labor market has moderated, it hasn't rolled over."

 

Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.

  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Thursday - holiday
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Thursday - holiday
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.