RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: cell and gene therapy share pricing inclines are due to trading, not catalysts

December 6, 2024 4:47pm

I will take portfolio advances no-matter-what however, algorithms and trading must NOT continually determine, condemn or electrify the cell and gene therapy sector’s valuations

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in Review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: risk-on or off exposure? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13724

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -123.19 points or -0.28%, the S&P closed UP +15.16 points or +0.25% while the Nasdaq closed UP +159.05 points or +0.81%

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to fresh highs on Friday as the Dow dived

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

• November jobs data came in slightly better than expected, but not so hot as to deter the Fed from cutting rates later this month.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 30 incliners, 2 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 32 incliner, 1 decliners and 2 flats

• Artificial highs and lows are determined by not the sector catalysts or development pipelines

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +1.35%, the XBI was up +1.80% while the VIX was down -0.81 points or -5.98% at 12.73

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 2 positive and 3 negative closes

•              November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes           

•              October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Friday’s Closing Down (1 of x1):

• Vericel (VCEL -$0.15 after Thursday’s -$1.63),

Flat (2):

• Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
• Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 32): 

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.45 after Thursday’s -$2.91, Wednesday’s +$2.88. Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s -$0.06),
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.82 after Thursday’s -$1.63),
• Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$2.04 after Thursday’s +$0.23 after Wednesday’s +$0.44, Tuesday’s -$0.93 and Monday’s -$0.03)
• Moderna (MRNA +$1.50 after Thursday’s +$1.31, Tuesday’s -$0.95, Tuesday’s -$1.68 and Monday’s +$1.20)
• Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.39 after Thursday’s -$0.70, Wednesday’s +$0.04, Tuesday’s -$2.32 and Monday’s +$0.92),
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.36),
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.07 after Thursday’s -$0.84, Wednesday’s -$0.16 and Tuesday’s -$1.08),
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.06 after Thursday’s -$1.20 and Wednesday’s -$0.43),
• Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.89 after Thursday’s -$1.44),
• uniQure NV (QURE +$0.86 and Thursday’s +$0.30),

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -248.33 points or -0.55%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.38 points or -0.19% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -34.86 points or -0.08%

• Indexes were down on Thursday as investors awaited more key economic data

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies 

• Initial filings for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week.  First-time claims for the week ending Nov. 30 totaled 224,000, up 9,000 from the previous period and higher than the estimate for 215,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower after being mostly on the rise for the past two months. The new total is 1.87 M, a decrease of 25,000 and lower than the FactSet forecast for 1.91 M. <Labor Department reported>
• Bullishness about the outlook for stocks over the next six months leaped to 48.3% in the week ended Wednesday from 37.1% last week and an historical average of 37.5%. Bearish views tumbled to 30.7% of respondents from 38.6% last week and an average of 31% since the survey began. <American Association of Individual Investors>
• The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast shows a fourth-quarter growth rate of 3.3%. That’s slight increase from 3.2% in Monday’s update.
• The U.S. trade imbalance was lower than expected in October> The deficit in goods and services totaled $73.8 B for the month, down $10 B from September and less than the $74.8 billion Dow Jones consensus estimate. Much of the decrease came as the shortfall with the European Union fell by $6.7 B. For the year, the trade deficit is up 12.3% compared to the same period in 2023. <Census Bureau report>

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 3 incliners, 30 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

• Again, the music stopped, sentiment slipped and the sector dropped

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.01%, the XBI was down 1.46% while the VIX was up +0.04 points or +0.30% at 13.49

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +308.51 points or +0.69%, the S&P closed UP +36.61 points or +0.61% while the Nasdaq closed UP +254.21 points or +1.30%

• Wednesday, indexes rose to fresh records

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

• Private payrolls growth was less than expected in November, reflecting a slowing labor market …
• Companies added 146,000 jobs on the month, below the downwardly revised 184,000 in October and less than the Dow Jones estimate for 163,000. Education and health services led job creation, adding 50,000 positions on the month. That was followed by construction with 30,000 new jobs, trade, transportation and utilities with 28,000 additions, and the other services category, which contributed 20,000 jobs. Manufacturing lost 26,000 positions on the month. Businesses with fewer than 50 employees also reported a drop of 17,000. Wage growth accelerated, by 4.8%, a faster gain than October, the first time that has happened in 25 months.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 18 incliners, 15 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 21 decliners and 3 flats

• The music stopped and the sector dropped

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.96%, the XBI was up +1.10% while the VIX was up +0.16 points or +1.20% at 13.46

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -76.47 points or -0.17%, the S&P closed UP +2.73 points or +0.05% while the Nasdaq closed UP +76.96 points or +0.40%

• Tuesday, indexes slivered up except Dow taking a breather

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

• Job openings (JOLTS) were higher in October compared to September; job openings hit a total of 7.74 M last month, topping the Dow Jones estimate of 7.5 M
• Hires came in at 5.31 M in the period, which is down 269 K on the month; bringing the hiring rate down to 3.3%.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 4 incliners, 30 declined and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

• Sector takes a serious hit in share pricing             

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.73%, the XBI was down -1.62% while the VIX was up +0.01 points or +0.08% at 13.35

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -128.65 points or -0.29%, the S&P closed UP +14.77 points or +0.24% while the Nasdaq closed UP +185.78 points or +0.97%

• Adding to new gains as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to new records

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

• Economic data indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector improved in November, although it still remained in contraction… the ISM’s manufacturing index rose to 48.4, above the 0.5 reading in October and better than the of 47.5. The index measures the percentage of companies reporting expansion, so anything below 50 indicates contraction. Within the monthly survey, inventories, new orders and employment all showed gains while the prices index dropped 4.5 points to 50.3, an indication that inflation pressures are easing.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 8 declined and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat

• As the cell and gene therapy sector grinds positively upward waiting for the headwind    

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.18%, the XBI was down -0.31% while the VIX was down -0.17 points or -1.26% at 13.34

The BOTTOM LINE: Econs matter … but “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks kicked off December, the final month of 2024 with ...

• A Monday positive followed by
• Thursday and Wednesday, Tuesday’s negative closes
• A Friday positive pop to new and old highs

Indexes were mixed on Friday as investors digested the last monthly jobs report of the year

• A crucial test of the prospects for interest rate cuts in December and beyond.

December is traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

• Never forget end of year tax selling and portfolio rotation due to recommendations are a’comin’!

Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.

• I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
• Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

• Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Moderna (MRNA)
• Thursday: Moderna (MRNA), uniQure NV (QURE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
• Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
• Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), MiMedx (MDXG) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
• Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

• Friday: Vericel (VCEL) and generation Bio (GBIO)
• Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
• Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Mesoblast (MESO) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
• Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Moderna (MRNA)
• Monday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

• Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.