December 12, 2024 5:10pm

The sentiment, sector churn and conviction displacement continue

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!

it’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight and dissecting sentiment

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Invest like you're driving on an icy, windy road, not an open highway.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: the hits keep a’comin’ … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13732

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -234.44 points or -0.53%, the S&P closed DOWN -32.94 points or –-0.54% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -132.05 points or -0.66%

  • Indexes closed down Thursday from a mixed day in the prior session weighed down by a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, increased 0.4% last month. Economists expected a 0.2% increase on a monthly basis.
  • 1st time claims for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, considerably higher than the 220,000 forecast and up 17,000 from the prior period.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 2 incliners, 31 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 32 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sentiment couldn’t be more drained from the visit of “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs”

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -2.43%, the XBI was down -2.77% while the VIX was up +0.23 points or +1.69% at 13.81

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 2 positive and 7 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes           
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 32):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.89 after Wednesday’s +$0.24 after Tuesday’s -$1.98 after Monday’s -$0.37),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.38 after Wednesday’s -$0.90 after Tuesday’s -$1.16 after Monday’s -$2.49),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$2.24 after Wednesday’s -$0.94 after Tuesday’s +$0.86 after Monday’s -$3.85),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.97),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.89 after Wednesday’s -$0.92 after Tuesday’s +$0.82 after Monday’s -$1.40),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.98 after Wednesday’s -$0.27 after Tuesday’s -$0.32 after Monday’s +$0.47),
  • Vericel VCEL -$0.91 after Wednesday’s +$0.36 after Tuesday’s +$1.20),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.84 after Wednesday’s -$1.30 after Tuesday’s +$2.69 after Monday’s +$0.81),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.59 after Wednesday’s +$0.35 after Tuesday’s +$8.01 after Monday’s -$0.15),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.58 after Wednesday’s -$0.46 after Tuesday’s -$0.41 after Monday’s +$0.59),

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (2 of 2): 

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.40 after Wednesday’s +$0.12),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.29 after Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s $0.00)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  share pricing does the “limbo” dance and low it went … lower!

NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks kicked off December, the final month of 2024 with

  • A new week, starts with 4 negative closes
  • A Monday positive followed by Thursday and Wednesday, Tuesday’s negative closes and Friday positive close

 

December is traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

  • Never forget end of year tax selling and portfolio rotation due to recommendations are a’comin’!
  • Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.
  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even after sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Vericel (VCEL) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Wednesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.