December 13, 2024 5:01pm

Sentiment’s blood can’t be more drained, as conviction shattered the sector

News: Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.45 or -23.81% to $1.44) Lays off more than 2/3rds of its 180 employees also after failing to secure a partner while initiating cost savings measures and reduction in headcount to align workforce and resources to in-vivo pipeline, extending cash runway into Q2/27

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in Review

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Invest like you're driving on an icy, windy road, not an open highway.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: blood awash in the cell and gene therapy sector … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13734   

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -86.06 points or -0.20%, the S&P closed DOWN -0.16points or +0.00% while the Nasdaq closed UP +23.88 points or +0.12%

  • Indexes closed mixed on the heels of another losing session …
  • For the week, the Dow had a 1.8% decline, the S&P 500 slid -0.7%; while the Nasdaq is on track for a 0.03% loss for the period

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Prices for U.S. imports increased +0.1% in November. U.S. export prices were unchanged in November. 

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 6 incliners, 28 declined and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sentiment scalds, sector blisters as conviction singes

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -1.06%, the XBI was down -0.80% while the VIX was down -0.19 points or -1.36% at 13.73

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 2 positive and 8 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 25):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.62 after Thursday’s -$2.38, Wednesday’s -$0.90, Tuesday’s -$1.16 and Monday’s -$2.49),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.26),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.11 after Wednesday’s -$1.97),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.99),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.66),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.52),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.45),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.44 after Thursday’s -$0.58, Wednesday’s -$0.46, Tuesday’s -$0.41 and Monday’s +$0.59),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.40 after Thursday’s -$0.98, Wednesday’s -$0.27, Tuesday’s -$0.32 and Monday’s +$0.47),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.35)

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (9 of 9):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.39),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.61 after Thursday’s -$1.89, Wednesday’s -$0.92, Tuesday’s +$0.82 and Monday’s -$1.40),
  • Vericel VCEL +$0.46 after Thursday’s -$0.91, Wednesday’s +$0.36, Tuesday’s +$1.20),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.34 after Thursday’s -$0.59, Wednesday’s +$0.35, Tuesday’s +$8.01 and Monday’s -$0.15),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.23),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.19 after Thursday’s -$2.24, Wednesday’s -$0.94, Tuesday’s +$0.86 and Monday’s -$3.85),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.18 after Thursday’s -$8.89, Wednesday’s +$0.24, Tuesday’s -$1.98 and Monday’s -$0.37),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.14),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.02),

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -234.44 points or -0.53%, the S&P closed DOWN -32.94 points or –-0.54% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -132.05 points or -0.66%

  • Indexes closed down Thursday from a mixed day in the prior session weighed down by a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, increased 0.4% last month. Economists expected a 0.2% increase on a monthly basis.
  • 1st time claims for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, considerably higher than the 220,000 forecast and up 17,000 from the prior period.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 2 incliners, 31 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 32 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sentiment couldn’t be more drained from the visit of “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs”

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -2.43%, the XBI was down -2.77% while the VIX was up +0.23 points or +1.69% at 13.81

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -99.27 points or -0.22%, the S&P closed UP +49.28 points or +0.82% while the Nasdaq closed UP +347.65 points or +1.77%

  • Indexes closed mixed Wednesday from a losing day in the prior session
  • The Nasdaq surged Wednesday after November’s inflation report met economists’ projections, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates again at its December meeting next week

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • November’s consumer price index, which tracks a basket of goods and services, was in line with expectations. The reading showed a +0.3% rise from October and +2.7% increase from a year ago. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased +0.3% on the month and +3.3% on an annual basis

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 21 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

  • The sentiment and sector churn continues

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.46%, the XBI was down -0.45% while the VIX was down -0.60 points or -4.23% at 13.58

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -154.10 points or -0.35%, the S&P closed DOWN -17.94 points or -0.30% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -49.45 points or -0.25%

  • Trading digests a year-end rally of record levels

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Waiting for U.S. inflation data set for release this week; economists forecast that headline inflation will rise +0.3% in November and +2.7% over the prior 12 months

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 15 incliners, 18 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 18 decliners and 3 flats

  • The sentiment and sector churn continues

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.18%, the XBI was down -0.82% while the VIX was up +0.03 points or +0.21% at 14.22

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -240.59 points or -0.54%, the S&P closed DOWN -37.32 points or -0.61% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -123.08 points or -0.62%

  • The S&P and Nasdaq pulled back from record highs

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased 0.4 points last month to 75 points. The index has risen 10.7 points, or more than 16%, in the last year. Forty-five percent of survey respondents say they expect mortgage rates to fall in the next 12 months, while 25% expect them to rise.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliners, 4 declined and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats

  • Artificial highs and lows determined by not the sector members but by algorithmic trading

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.44%, the XBI was down -0.87% while the VIX was up +1.26 points or +9.87% at 14.03

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  share pricing continues to “limbo” dance; and how low did it go … lower!

NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

Interesting: The Nasdaq ended with weekly gains, as the index notched a record close on Wednesday while finishing above the milestone level of 20,000 for the 1st  time dropping on Friday to 19,926.72.

  • For Friday: The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 14.19 points, or 0.6%, to 2,346.90.
  • For the week: The Russell 2000 is down 62.10 points, or 2.6%.
  • For the Year: The Russell 2000 is up 319.82 points, or 15.8%.

 

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks kicked off December, the final month of 2024 with

  • A new week, ends with 5 negative closes
  • Last week, Monday positive followed by Thursday and Wednesday, Tuesday’s negative closes and Friday positive close

 

December is traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

  • Never forget, end of year tax selling
  • Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.
  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even after sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Mesoblast (MESO), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Thursday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Vericel (VCEL) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Wednesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.