December 20, 2024 7:53am

BUY, SELL or just HOLD – it’s worth a dice throw anticipating the coming read of the Fed’s inflation gauge and the latest iteration of budget turbulence

Pre-open Indications: 4 Positive and 4 Negative Suppositions

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October.

  • The measure indicated a 2.4% inflation rate on an annual basis, still ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal but lower than the 2.5% estimate
  • Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings also being 0.1% point below the forecast. Fed officials generally consider the core reading to be a better gauge of long-run inflation trends as it excludes the volatile gas and groceries category.

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Thursday’s night’s update … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: econs are shoving the cell and gene therapy sector … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13741

 

Thursday The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.28% or (- 120 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.50% or (-29 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.89% or (-189 points) - <UPDATED>

  • U.S. stock futures fell on Friday,
  • European markets were lower,
  • Asia markets mostly fall

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Thursday’s slim gain for the Dow and narrow losses for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq came as the 10-year Treasury yield popped for a 2nd day and kept stocks under pressure.

  • Investors are now looking ahead to November’s reading of the (PCE) personal consumption expenditures price index. The final reading of consumer sentiment is also due, with analysts forecasting a level of 74.2.

Economic Data Docket: PCE will likely show the 12-month inflation rate to rise 2% goal; also, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.

 

Q4/24: December = 11 negative and 3 positive closes

  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive indications:

Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday and last Friday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Headed North:

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.66 after Wednesday’s -$1.43, Tuesday’s -$0.42 and Monday’s +$1.49 with a positive +$1.77 or +4.97% aftermarket on news of the FDA has approved TRYNGOLZA™ (olezarsen) as an adjunct to diet to reduce triglycerides in adults with familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), a rare, genetic form of severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) that can lead to potentially life-threatening acute pancreatitis (AP). TRYNGOLZA is the first-ever FDA-approved treatment that significantly and substantially reduces triglyceride levels in adults with FCS and provides clinically meaningful reduction in AP events when used with an appropriate diet (≤20 grams of fat per day). TRYNGOLZA is self-administered via an auto-injector once monthly.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$0.40 after Wednesday’s -$2.13 with a positive +$1.02 or +3.82% aftermarket

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.68 after Wednesday’s-$3.57 with a positive +$0.42 or +1.03% aftermarket

Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$1.30 after Wednesdaqy’s-1.88 with a positive +$0.85 or +1.55% aftermarket

 

Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Headed South:

Moderna (MRNA) closed up $1.20 after Wednesday’s -$2.40 with a negative -$0.16 or -0.40% aftermarket

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$0.95 after Wednesday’s -$8.66 with a negative -$2.30 or -0.96 aftermarket

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +0.07 after Wednesday’s -$0.52 with a negative -$0.17 or -3.39% aftermarket

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$0.53 after Wednesday’s -$2.01 with a negative -$0.98 or -2.25% aftermarket

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  A government shut-down for all and … heightened uncertainty as the national debt has soared to over $36 trillion, and the national deficit is over $1.8 trillion!

  • There is “likely to be little economic or financial-market impact” in the event of a shutdown and that discretionary spending – not Social Security or Medicare payments – will feel the effect. He recommended maintaining current portfolio positions. < Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute>

 

Reiterating, “analysts polled by Dow Jones expect the PCE price Index to rise 0.2% on the month and show an annual reading of 2.5%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.9% annually, above the Fed’s 2% target.”

  • “Whatever the reaction is going to be, it’s probably going to be more severe one way or the other than it would have been prior to seeing the Fed really increase those expectations,” Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, told CNBC.

 

From Wednesday, a good quote; “Good-bye punch bowl. No Christmas cheer from the Fed. Policymakers see higher inflation and lower unemployment in 2024. There is simply no reason to be dovish given that outlook. “The easy lifting is done now that rates are no longer clearly restrictive. It’s a logical time to pause.” < David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation>

 

There are clear winners with mostly losers in December …

  • Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!

 

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.