December 20, 2024 4:32pm

Braced by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” famished for stock treats

The threat of a government shutdown continues after 2 failed attempts by House Republicans in recent days to avert a stoppage

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in Review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +498.02 points or +1.18%, the S&P closed UP +63.77 points or +1.09% while the Nasdaq closed UP +199.83 points or +1.03%

  • Finally, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq swallowed the little blue pill

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • November’s reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation metric - increased 2.4% year-over-year … a tad less than economists expected.    

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliners, 10 declined and 1 flat; ending with a barely positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats

  • Sector closed steeper after a week of deep dives  

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +1.52%, the XBI was up +1.43% while the VIX was down -5.58 points or -23.48% at 18.41

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 4 positive and 11 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing Down (5 of 5):

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$2.13 after Thursday’s +$4.51),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.73 after Thursday’s +$0.82),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.17 after Thursday’s +$1.20, Wednesday’s -$2.40 and Tuesday’s -$1.08),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.03),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.01)

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.57 after Thursday’s +$0.95, Wednesday’s -$8.66, Tuesday’s +$2.59 and Monday’s -$1.45),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$2.35 after Thursday’s +$1.04, Wednesday’s -$3.17, Tuesday’s +$1.56 and Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.16 after Thursday’s +$0.40),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.55 after Thursday’s -$1.30),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.51 after Thursday’s -$0.29),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.28 after Thursday’s +$1.13, Wednesday’s -$1.89, Tuesday’s -$0.50 and Monday’s +$0.67),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.79 after Thursday’s +$0.51),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.75 after Thursday’s +$0.53, Wednesday’s -$2.01, Tuesday’s -$0.45 and Monday’s -$0.38),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.61),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.58)

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +15.37 points or +0.04%, the S&P closed DOWN -5.08 points or -0.09% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -19.92 points or -0.10%

  • Finally, the Dow got it up … while the S&P and Nasdaq dived        

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Sales of previously owned homes rose 4.8% in November compared with October. Sales were 6.1% higher than November 2023, the largest annual gain in 3 years
  • Gross domestic product (GDP)accelerated at a 3.1% seasonally adjusted annualized pace during the July-through-September period, 0.3% point better than the previous estimate and above the 2.9% consensus estimate. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 2/3rds of all activity in the $29.4 trillion U.S. economy, rose 3.7% in the quarter, 0.2% point faster than the prior estimate.
  • Jobless claims totaled 220,000 for the period ending Dec. 14, a decline of 22,000 from the previous period and lower than the estimate for 230,000. The 4-week moving average, which accounts for volatility in the numbers, edged higher to 225,500. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, nudged lower to 1.874 M.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliners, 25 declined and 2 flats; ending with a barely negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sector closed deeper after deep following a barely deep

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.11%, the XBI was down -0.12% while the VIX was also down -3.53 points or -12.78% at 24.09

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -1123.03 points or -2.58%, the S&P closed DOWN -178.45 points or -2.95% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -716.37 points or -3.56%

  • The sank deeper into the history books with the storied index on track for its 10th straight losing day following a disappointing rate outlook by the Fed.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The central bank reduced its overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, as expected.
  • Building permits rose in November even as both housing starts and completions declined
  • Mortgage rates moved markedly higher last week, causing overall mortgage demand to drop

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 13 incliners, 20 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 32 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sector closed deeper after a barely deep

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -5.34%, the XBI was down -4.66 while the VIX was up +11.76 points or +73.90% at 27.92

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -267.58 points or -0.61%, the S&P closed DOWN -23.47 points or -0.39% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -64.83 points or -0.32%

  • The Dow entered the history books Tuesday with its 1st 9-day losing streak since the 1970s in sight.           

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • November’s retail sales figure came in better than economists expected … Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% for the month, an acceleration from the upwardly revised 0.5% in October and better than the estimate for 0.5%. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.2%, a touch below the 0.3% estimate. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so the spending pace was ahead of the 0.3% increase in the consumer price index. A 2.6% increase in motor vehicle and parts sales paced the spending, while online shopping rose 1.8%. Miscellaneous sales tumbled 3.5%. On a 12-month basis, receipts were up 3.8%, ahead of the 2.7% CPI inflation rate.
  • The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index stayed at 46 in December, lower than economists’ estimates of 47. Any reading under 50 indicates more builders view conditions as poor rather than good.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 23 declined and 3 flats; ending with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats

  • Sector closed up as pitching mechanics overcome batting stances

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was UP +0.64 %, the XBI was up +1.38 while the VIX was up +0.85 points or +6.23% at 14.67

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -110.34 points or -0.25%, the S&P closed UP +22.99 points or +0.38% while the Nasdaq closed UP +247.17 points or +1.24%

  • Indexes closed mixed as Nasdaq rose to a record

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • S&P Global's flash US composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors, came in at 56.6 in December, up from 54.9 in August. Economists had expected the index to tick up to 55.1.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliners, 7 declined and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 11 decliners and 3 flats

  • Last week, who went down; went up this …

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was UP +0.64 %, the XBI was up +1.38% while the VIX was up +0.86 points or +6.23% at 14.67

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What a week ...

Indexes bounced back Friday as investors digested key inflation data that showed a deceleration in price increases during the month of November.

  • Today’s reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed price increases decelerated in November on a monthly basis and came in below economists' estimates. But they still remained sticky as the central bank fights to bring inflation back down to its 2% target. <Yahoo Finance>

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks ended the 3rd week of December, the final month of 2024 with

  • Monday closed positive with a Tuesday barely positive close followed by a Wednesday and Thursday negative closes … followed by a Friday positive close
  • Last week, ended with 5 negative closes
  • The previous week, Monday closed positive followed by Thursday and Wednesday, Tuesday’s negative closes and Friday positive close

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • They had better, capital markets are floundering on follow-on offerings.

December has been a traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

  • Never forget, end of year tax selling
  • Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.
  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Thursday: Mesoblast (MESO), Moderna (MRNA) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and Precigen (PGEN)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), uniQure NV (QURE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Mesoblast (MESO), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Editas Medicine (EDIT)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.