January 7, 2025 4:39pm

As I wrote this a.m., “I recommend rebalancing and selling some of your winning stocks as market volatility awaits earnings results release”

Another short week when I am not usually wrong but mostly early

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: expectation versus reality… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13757

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -178.20 points or -0.42%, the S&P closed DOWN -667.35 points or -1.11% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -375.30 points or -1.89%

  • Indexes closed down pressured by high Treasury yields

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The Institute for Supply Management reflected faster-than-expected growth in the U.S. services sector in December, adding to concerns about stickier inflation.
  • The ISM services sector PMI came in at 54.1. Economists expected a print of 53.4. A key driver of that beat was the PMI’s price index — which soared 6.2 points to 64.4 — signaling there may be more inflation on the horizon.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 21 incliners, 11 declined and 3 flats; ending with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats

  • Is heightened volatility a-comin’?

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.18%, the XBI was up +0.66% while the VIX was up +1.82 points or +11.33% at 17.86

 

Q1/25 – 1 holiday and 4 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 16):

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$1.06 after Monday’s -$1.16),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.90 after Monday’s +$0.74),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.51 after Monday’s +$1.41),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.44),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.33 after Monday’s +$0.67)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.24),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.18 after Monday’s -$0.04)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.15),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.15 after Monday’s +$0.84),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.12),

Flat (2)

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 17):

  • Moderna (MRNA +$4.96 after Monday’s +$0.39),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$4.83 after Monday’s +$1.119),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.80 after Monday’s -$1.13)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.78 after Monday’s +$1.16)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.87 after Monday’s -$0.71),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.72 after Monday’s +$0.98),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.47),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.24),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.17 after Monday’s +$0.42),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.14 after Monday’s -$1.55)

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I haven’t changed my tone reduce your winners …

US stocks reversed early gains as cautious investors weighed new economic data as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) added roughly 7 basis points to hover just below 4.7%.

  • Also, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI surge in prices "is a worry for the Fed as it is consistent with PCE super core inflation remaining at 3.5% until the middle of next year." <Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan>

 

Hope you ENJOYED the HIGH! I wrote yesterday a.m., a whole New Year group of expectations are coming and NOT going to happen!

 

Moderna (MRNA), other vaccine makers rise after US bird flu death

  • Vaccine makers' stocks rose Tuesday following the first reported bird flu death in the US as well as an uptick in COVID-19 cases, per CDC data.
  • Moderna (MRNA) surged nearly 12%. Moderna in July 2024 was awarded $176 million from the US government to advance the development of its mRNA H5N1 (bird flu) vaccine, which is in early stages of testing.
  • Pfizer (PFE) is also developing an mRNA vaccine for H5N1. Shares of the company rose a more modest 1.4% midday Tuesday. Its partner on a COVID-19 vaccine, BioNTech (BNTX), rose over 5%.
  • Meanwhile, German biotech firm CureVac (CVAC) rose 5.9%. CureVac is developing an mRNA bird flu shot in collaboration with Indian pharma giant GlaxoSmithKline (GLAXO.BO), which was up a little more than 1%.
  • Amid the COVID-19 uptick, vaccine maker Novavax (NVAX) rose over 10%. <Laura Bratton, Yahoo Finance>

 

2025 is here and it's time to talk about the January Barometer… think about this one …

  • The concept of the barometer is simple: If stocks are higher in January, they should be higher for the year. Likewise, if stocks are lower in January, they'll be lower for the year. <TheStreet>
  • It works most of the time. The Stock Trader's Almanac says it's been right 84% of the time since 1950.
  • It does suggest — based on history — the environments an investor might face in making a buy or sell decision.

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
  • They had better, capital markets have been floundering on follow-on offerings.

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public.

What could 2025, and even 2026, have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Monday: AxoGen (AXGN), Mesoblast (MESO) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.