January 8, 2025 4:32pm

As I wrote this a.m., “Investors should be cautious weighing economic data; the cell and gene therapy sector is under pressure as inflation … and risks waffle”

Another short week includes former President Carter’s state funeral while “Inflation, bond rates … and interest rates are far too high"

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: calibrate … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13759

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +106.84 points or +0.25%, the S&P closed UP +9.22 points or +0.16% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -10.80 points or -0.06%

  • Indexes closed mixed amid persistent inflationary pressures
  • Bond yields have been climbing as inflation question lingers. The rate on the benchmark 10-year note at one point topped 4.7%, nearing levels last seen in late April

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Initial filings for unemployment benefits fell last week, signaling that while the labor market may be softening, employers are not cutting staff. Claims totaled 201,000 for the period ending Jan. 4, down 10,000 from the prior period for the lowest total in nearly a year. Economists had been looking for 215,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled 1.87 million, an increase of 33,000 from the week before.
  • ADP - private sector companies added fewer jobs than expected during the month of December, while wages grew at the slowest pace in nearly 3½ years, payment processing firm ADP reported. Companies added a seasonally adjusted 122,000 jobs for the month, down from 146,000 additions in November and less than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 136,000. It marked the smallest increase since August.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line mid-day was negative with 6 incliners, 26 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

  • As I had asked, “Is heightened volatility a-comin’?” – it was and did …!

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.64%, the XBI was down -0.56% while the VIX was down -0.15 points or -0.84% at 17.67

 

Q1/25 – 1 holiday, 1 negative and 4 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 27):

  • Moderna (MRNA -$4.36 after Tuesday’s +$4.96 after Monday’s +$0.39),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.74 after Tuesday’s +$4.83 after Monday’s +$1.119),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.72 after Tuesday’s +$0.44),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.87 after Tuesday’s +$0.87 and Monday’s -$0.71),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.84),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.79 after Tuesday’s +$1.78 after Monday’s +$1.16),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.72 after Tuesday’s-$1.06 after Monday’s -$1.16),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.63 after Tuesday’s -$0.51 after Monday’s +$1.41),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.56 after Tuesday’s -$0.90 after Monday’s +$0.74),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.45 after Tuesday’s -$0.33 after Monday’s +$0.67)

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (7 of 7):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.60 after Tuesday’s +$2.80 after Monday’s -$1.13)
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.45 after Tuesday’s +$0.47),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.58 after Tuesday’s -$0.15 after Monday’s +$0.84),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.57 after Tuesday’s +$0.14 after Monday’s -$1.55)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.43 after Tuesday’s -$0.15),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.18 after Monday’s -$0.04)
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.05),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I haven’t changed my tone reduce your winners … and I wasn’t wrong!

  • Economic data is a KEY to share pricing as hiring in the US labor market continues to slow, but layoffs remain low.

 

ENJOY the HIGH! I wrote Monday a.m.; a whole New Year group of expectations are coming and again … NOT happening!

 

2025 is here and it's time to talk about the January Barometer… think about this one …

  • The concept of the barometer is simple: If stocks are higher in January, they should be higher for the year. Likewise, if stocks are lower in January, they'll be lower for the year. <TheStreet>
  • It works most of the time. The Stock Trader's Almanac says it's been right 84% of the time since 1950.
  • It does suggest — based on history — the environments an investor might face in making a buy or sell decision.

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
  • They had better, capital markets have been floundering on follow-on offerings.

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public.

What could 2025, and even 2026, have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Monday: AxoGen (AXGN), Mesoblast (MESO) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.