January 23, 2025 8:11am
Recent cell and gene therapy sector highs stimulate a tip-of-the-hat and then a bye
Electronic and algo’s speculative behavior has ascended to questionable sector pricing
Pre-open Indications: 1 Negative and 1 Sell into Strength
Breaking: Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ended Jan. 18. Economists had forecast 220,000 claims for the latest week. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 jobs in December. The economy added 2.2 M jobs last year, averaging 186,000 positions per month, down from 3 M in 2023.
Never leave an investor uninform
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!
Wednesday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: Getting little too frothy … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13775
Thursday; the pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.14% or (+62 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.12% or (-7 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.48% or (-105 points)
- Futures are mixed and ticking lower Thursday, 1/23/25;
- European stocks were trading slightly higher,
- Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +130.92 points or +0.30%, the S&P closed UP +37.12 points or +0.61% while the Nasdaq closed UP +252.56 points or +1.28%
US stocks faltered before the bell on Thursday, pulling back from a bid for fresh records as AI optimism waned and markets waited for more detail on President Trump's tariff plans. <CNBC>
The combination of a resilient economy, easing inflation, stabilization in interest rates, earnings season’s off to a strong start, and less day-one focus on tariffs by President Trump has provided a solid backdrop for the market.” < Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer>
Economic Data Docket: Initial jobless claims, week ending Jan. 18 (217,000 previously); Kansas City Fed. Manufacturing Activity, January (-4 prior);
Q1/25: January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 5 negative and 8 positive closes
- Q4/24: December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
- November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
- October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context
I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$2.69 after Tuesday’s +$0.98, Friday’s +$0.23, last Thursday’s +$1.26 and the previous Wednesday’s +$0.68 with a positive +$0.49 or +1.11% aftermarket
Negative Indications:
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$1.23 or +18.72% to $7.80 with a negative -$0.12 or -1.53% aftermarket
Positive Indication:
The BOTTOM LINE: These are the best of times and the worst of times.
- Expect volatility to be more the norm versus exception.
- Short term, markets and the cell and gene therapy sector will have to contend with upcoming earnings reports as the usual reporting pushes into the “dump.”
January ‘25 recap:
- 1/22 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats
- 1/21 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
- 1/20 – Inauguration Day, markets were closed
- 1/17 – Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
- 1/16 – Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats
- 1/15 – Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open ended with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
- 1/14 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
- 1/13 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
- 1/10 - Friday’s advance/decline line mid-day ended with a negative close at the close of 29 incliner, 2 decliners and 4 flats
- 1/9 - Thursday, markets were closed
- 1/8 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
- 1/7 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
- 1/6 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
- 1/3 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
- 1 /2 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
Two trading days into Trump new administration, the newly sworn-in president is already having an impact on the stock market. More and more needed!!
Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 are due … as downdrafts follow as proven in past sessions!
- Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has … 99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>
What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!
- "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.
I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …
- Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
- Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.