January 24, 2025 4:57pm

As cell and gene therapy equities squirmed on Friday failing to its recent rallies

“Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” left the building with full bags of profit

Never leave an investor uninformed!  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

The week in review


I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: new records pushing risk higher … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13778

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -140.82 points or -0.32%, the S&P closed DOWN -17.47 points or -0.29% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -99.38 points or -0.50%

  • Indexes slipped on Friday
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each risen around 1.7% week to date, while the Dow climbed 2.2%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Home sales rose in December, registering their strongest annual gain in 3 ½ years. Existing sales were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.15 M for the month, up 2.2% from November, though slightly below the estimate of 4.2 M. On a monthly basis, it was the best reading since February 2024, while the highest annually since June 2021.
  • Service-sector activity hit a 9-month low in January. The services index from purchasing managers dipped to 52.8, down 4 points from December and below the forecast for 56.5. For manufacturing, the index rose to 50.2, up 2.5 points on the month and beating the estimate of 49.7.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 10 incliners, 21 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sector breadth was minimal

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -1.35%, the XBI was down -0.52% while the VIX was down -0.23 points or -1.53% at 14.79

 

As compared to … Thursday: The Dow closed UP +408.34 points or +0.92%, the S&P closed UP +32.34 points or +0.53% while the Nasdaq closed UP +44.34 points or +0.22%

  • Indexes took a broad moves forward while the Nasdaq slowed.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • First-time benefits filings totaled a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ending Jan. 18, up 6,000 from the previous week and close to the estimate for 221,000. Ongoing claims, which run a week behind, rose to just shy of 1.9 M, an increase of 46,000 that took them to their highest level since Nov. 13, 2021.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 15 incliners, 17 declined and 5 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats

•              Sector breadth was shaky

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +1.77%, the XBI was up +1.96% while the VIX was down -0.11points or -0.73% at 14.99

 

As compared to … Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +130.92 points or +0.30%, the S&P closed UP +37.12 points or +0.61% while the Nasdaq closed UP +252.56 points or +1.28%

  • Indexes climbed on Wednesday, while cell and gene therapy sector waffled

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Mortgage applications increased 0.1% from 1 week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2025.              
  • Service-sector activity hit a 9-month low in January, while manufacturing moved into expansion for the first time since last spring, S&P Global reported. The firm’s services index from purchasing managers dipped to 52.8, down 4 points from December and below the Dow Jones forecast for 56.5. For manufacturing, the index rose to 50.2, up 2.5 points on the month and beating the estimate of 49.7.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 18 incliners, 12 declined and 5 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats

  • Sector breadth was shaky

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.19%, the XBI was up +0.70% while the VIX was up +0.04 points or +0.27% at 15.10

 

As compared to … Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +538.22 points or +1.24%, the S&P closed UP +52.60 points or +0.88% while the Nasdaq closed UP +126.58 points or +0.64%

  • Indexes popped higher as the dollar's gains and losses signal a new normal for markets
  • The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell about 4 basis points to around 4.57%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The next batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 5 declined and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sector breadth was strong

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +3.45%, the XBI was up +2.43% while the VIX was down -0.78 points or -4.93% at 15.03

 

Monday was a holiday

 

Q1/25 – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 6 negative and 9 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 22):

  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.98 after Thursday’s+$3.89 after Wednesday’s +$2.61 after Tuesday’s +$1.83 after Friday’s+$0.30),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.81),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.80 after Thursday’s +$1.91),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.72 after Thursday’s +$4.55 after Wednesday’s -$0.88 after Tuesday’s +$1.91 after Friday’s +$6.10),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.58 after Thursday’s-$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.08),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.45 after Thursday’s+$0.52 after Wednesday’s -$0.03),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.31 after Thursday’s -$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$1.86 after Tuesday’s +$1.09),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.30),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.24),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.21 after Thursday’s+$0.30, Wednesday’s +$0.64, Tuesday’s +$1.32 and Friday’s +$0.10).

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.22 after Thursday’s +$9.00, Wednesday’s +$1.55, Tuesday’s +$18.72 and Friday’s -$2.89
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.29 after Thursday’s +$1.96, Wednesday’s -$0.18, Tuesday’s +$1.25 and Friday’s -$0.85),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.25 after Thursday’s+$0.44 and Wednesday’s -$0.46),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB+$0.21 after Thursday’s -$0.12, Wednesday’s -$0.14 and Tuesday’s -$0.01),
  • Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.19 (100 shares) after Thursday’s and Wednesday's $0.00)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.11),
  • Sage therapeutics (SAGE +$0.09).
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.08),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.05),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +0.03),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.01 after Thursday’s-$1.111 after Wednesday’s -$1.03),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist …

  • But one who has been “there” (research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct business school (MBA) professor now a journalist) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

As a quantamental “plotter” I equate myself to a quantitative analyst straddling fundamental stock picking to produce better results for investors.

  • The term “quantamental,” blends the two styles setting forth my difference retail, trading and multiple investor categories.

Think of this market and “our” universe as a game of shuts and ladders or sometimes monopoly … and follow RMi’s “interchanges” to gain profit moves or recoup losses – eat the popcorn and ponder ANY moves!

•              Short on words, long on being Judicious!

Another new week closer to January’s end after many “events”

  • “Our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released preliminary unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024!

 

January ‘25 recap: understand the “flow” …

  • 1/24 – Friday - ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/23 - Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 1/22 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/21 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/20 – Markets were closed
  • 1/17 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/16 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/15 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/14 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/13 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/10 - Friday’s advance/decline line mid-day ended with a negative close at the close of 29 incliner, 2 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/9 - Thursday, markets were closed
  • 1/8 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/7 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/6 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/3 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1 /2 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/1 - Monday - market was closed

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  •  2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Mesoblast (MESO) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Moderna (MRNA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday, markets were closed

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: bluebird Bio (BLUE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), and Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Monday, markets were closed

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.