January 27, 2025 4:53pm

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down sharply Monday while the CBOE Market Volatility Index or VIX, soared more than 45% to 22.51 closing at 17.94; up from 14.85 on Friday.

News: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.34 or +4.79% to $7.44) its board has unanimously rejected Biogen’s (BIIB) $469 M offer … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13763

Never leave an investor uninformed!  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!


I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: watchout below, AI driving down today’s market … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13780

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Non-binding Acquisition Proposal from Biogen (BIIB) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13763

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +289.33 points or +0.65%, the S&P closed DOWN -88.96 points or -1.46% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -612.47 points or -3.07%

  • Indexes closed mixed and down on concern about an artificial intelligence stock bubble

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • New-home sales rose again in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, a 3.6% increase from November 2024 and a 6.7% increase from December 2023.         

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 8 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats

  • Sector breadth fluctuated to the downside further

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +1.04%, the XBI was up +0.14% while the VIX was up +3.09 points or +20.81% at 17.94

 

As compared to … Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -140.82 points or -0.32%, the S&P closed 17.47 points or -0.29% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -99.38 points or -0.50%

  • Indexes slipped on Friday
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each risen around 1.7% week to date, while the Dow climbed 2.2%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Home sales rose in December, registering their strongest annual gain in 3 ½ years. Existing sales were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.15 M for the month, up 2.2% from November, though slightly below the estimate of 4.2 M. On a monthly basis, it was the best reading since February 2024, while the highest annually since June 2021.
  • Service-sector activity hit a 9-month low in January. The services index from purchasing managers dipped to 52.8, down 4 points from December and below the forecast for 56.5. For manufacturing, the index rose to 50.2, up 2.5 points on the month and beating the estimate of 49.7.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 10 incliners, 21 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sector breadth was minimal

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -1.35%, the XBI was down -0.52% while the VIX was down -0.23 points or -1.53% at 14.79

 

Q1/25 – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 7 negative and 9 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 21):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.03 after Friday’s +$3.22),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.57 after Friday’s -$0.81),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.03 after Friday’s -$0.72),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.78 after Friday’s -$0.80),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.70 after Friday’s +$0.29),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.44 after Friday’s -$0.30),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.39 after Friday’s +$0.25),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.21),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.21),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.21 after Friday’s -$0.58),

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing Up (12 of 12): +$ after Friday’s

  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.29 after Friday’s +$0.01),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.50),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.34 after Friday’s +$0.09).
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.29),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.24 after Friday’s -$0.98)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.17 after Friday’s -$0.45),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.13),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.12 after Friday’s -$0.21).
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.04),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.03),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.03),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.01 after Friday’s +$0.08)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Another new week closer to January’s end after many “events”

  • “Our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released preliminary unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024!

As I wrote this a.m., I was early, early at Milford regional Hospital in Mass giving blood for the soon to be next Monday’s surgical for my “babe”! I have given blood many times as an Army officer and a Fed for soldiers and veterans, I never knew but it was different this a.m. – on of my own!

As sector earnings season is about to begin; There are a lot of questions that need to be answered before investors can really make an educated decision on how they want to deal with their exposures.

  • It comes down to just … ride it out as share pricing usually bounces back!

 

January ‘25 recap: understand the “flow” …

  • 1/27 -Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/24 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/23 - Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 1/22 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/21 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/20 – Markets were closed
  • 1/17 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/16 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/15 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/14 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/13 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/10 - Friday’s advance/decline line mid-day ended with a negative close at the close of 29 incliner, 2 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/9 - Thursday, markets were closed
  • 1/8 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/7 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/6 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/3 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1 /2 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/1 Wednesday, markets were closed

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  •  2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions BLFS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Friday: Mesoblast (MESO) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and AxoGen (AXGN)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.