January 29, 2025 4:47pm

As the cell and gene therapy reacted to being infected by the econ disease with a financial cost to our portfolio

While the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, the “fear gauge” stays low

News: Agenus (AGEN +$0.04) published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology data from its study of botensilimab (BOT) in combination with balstilimab (BAL) in patients with relapsed/refractory (R/R) metastatic sarcomas. These findings highlight the ability of this combination to deliver meaningful clinical benefits, including durable responses and extended survival, for patients with colon cancer, lung cancer, melanoma and ovarian cancers.

Never leave an investor uninformed!  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!


I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: econ day … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13784

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Non-binding Acquisition Proposal from Biogen (BIIB) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13763

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -136.83 points or -0.31%, the S&P closed DOWN -28.39 points or -0.47% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -101.26 points or -0.51%

  • Indexes slid on Wednesday after the Fed left interest rates unchanged in its first policy decision of the year

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Fed, central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%
  • The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid,” new language in the statement said. “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” <JPowell, Fed Chair>

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliners, 11 declined and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 24 declined and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 17 decliners and 4 flats
  • As compared to Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 8 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.67%, the XBI was down -0.60% while the VIX was up +0.16 points or +0.98% at 16.57

 

Q1/25 – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 9 negative and 9 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 24)   

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.20 after Tuesday’s +$2.77 and Monday’s -$2.03),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$4.22 after Tuesday’s +$3.29)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.23),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.13 after Tuesday’s +$0.39 and Monday’s +$2.29),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.07 after Tuesday’s +$1.58).
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.60),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.21),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.19 after Tuesday’s +$0.21 and Monday’s +$0.50),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.15 after Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s -$1.03),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.40 and Monday’s +$0.17),

Flat (2)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (9 of 9):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.23 after Tuesday’s +$0.44 and Monday’s -$0.39),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.65 after Tuesday’s -$0.65),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.45 after Tuesday’s -$0.51),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.54 and Monday’s -$0.44),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.05),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.05),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.03),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.01),
  • BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$0.09)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  NO rebound on Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday, as I wrote Monday a.m., “Risk versus uncertainty – which is worst?”

  • It’s not good to answer a question with a question … look really closely at the sensitivity to/in the sector’s share pricing’s downfall ... there is the micro and less of the macro … you want to focus on what’s oversold pre-earnings release— not Nvidia, not indexes, the sector is OUR key.

Indexes fell after the Fed kept interest rates steady at its January meeting; while the Nasdaq was down and then indexes perked-up although trading low as the Fed’s Jerome began speaking

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14

 

January ‘25 recap: understand the “flow” …

  • 1/29 - Wednesday ended with a negative close at the close of xx incliner, xx decliners and x flats
  • 1/28 – Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 17 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/27 -Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/24 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/23 - Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 1/22 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/21 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/20 – Markets were closed

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  •  2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Wednesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Verve therapeutics (VERV)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions BLFS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Beam therapeutics (BEAM), uniQure NV (QURE) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.