January 30, 2025 6:54pm
Electronic trading and algorithms contribute to the predictable – I say, ups of the cell and gene therapy sector after 4 down sector sessions
Think of this market and “our” universe as a game of shuts and ladders or sometimes monopoly
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi provides the extenuating factors of share pricing.
I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!
Never leave an investor uninformed!
On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: ongoing rocky week, further erosion of pricing or some valuation bursts? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13786
Thursday: The Dow closed UP +168.61 points or +0.38%, the S&P closed UP +31.86 points or +0.53% while the Nasdaq closed UP +49.43 points or +0.25%
- Indexes posted gains in a bout of turbulent trading Thursday
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
- The U.S. economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace during the final 3 months of 2024. Gross domestic product grew by 2.3% in Q4 on an annualized basis, while economists expected an increase of 2.5%. Full-year GDP expanded at a solid 2.8% pace after growing by 2.9% in 2023.
- The Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks contract signings on existing homes, dropped 5.5% from November to 74.2, snapping a 4-month streak of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). An index level of 100 is equal to contract activity in 2001.
Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 7 declined and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 13 decliners and 2 flats
- Thursday’s share pricing floated like a butterfly
Metrics: Thursday, the IBB was up +1.38%, the XBI was up +0.96% while the VIX was down -0.72 points or -4.35% at 15.84
Q1/25 – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 9 negative and 10 positive closes
- Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
- November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
- October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions
Thursday’s Closing Down (13 of 13)
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.14),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.27 after Wednesday’s +$0.15, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s -$1.03),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.29 after Wednesday’s +$0.45 and Tuesday’s -$0.51),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.60 after Wednesday’s -$0.19, Tuesday’s +$0.21 and Monday’s +$0.50),
- BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.12 after Wednesday’s +$0.01 and Tuesday’s -$0.09)
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.09 after Wednesday’s -$0.11, Tuesday’s +$0.40 and Monday’s +$0.17),
- Agenus (AGEN -$0.07 after Wednesday’s +$0.05),
- Generation BIO (GBIO -$0.0468),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.04),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.03),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.03),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.01)
Flat (2)
- Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN $0.00 after Wednesday’s -$0.07, Tuesday and Monday’s $0.00),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX)
Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 20):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.17 after Wednesday’s -$5.20, Tuesday’s +$2.77 and Monday’s -$2.03),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.37),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.93),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.83 after Wednesday’s +$0.60),
- uniQure NV (+$0.55),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.44 after Wednesday’s +$1.23),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.39 after Wednesday’s +$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.54 and Monday’s -$0.44),
- Regenxbio (+$0.38)
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.36 after Wednesday’s +$0.21),
- Moderna (MRNA +$0.32 after Wednesday’s -$4.22 and Tuesday’s +$3.29)
The BOTTOM LINE: US Indexes gained steam on Thursday
- The US dollar index spiked on the news, reversing earlier losses.
Finally, a rebound after down shifting on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday, as I wrote Monday a.m., “Risk versus uncertainty – which is worst?”
I think it's important just to take a step back, focus on the fundamentals, be selective. I mean, this has definitely NOT been a great quarter from a stock-picker standpoint.
- Fed Chair Powell admitted the economic outlook for 2025 is likely more uncertain than normal.
- "In the current situation there's probably some elevated uncertainty because of the significant policy shifts in those four areas that I mentioned, tariffs, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulatory policy."
Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
- Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
January ‘25 recap: understand the “flow” …
- 1/30 - Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 13 decliners and 2 flats
- 1/29 - Wednesday ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
- 1/28 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 17 decliners and 4 flats
- 1/27 - Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
- 1/24 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
- 1/23 - Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
- 1/22 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats
- 1/21 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
- 1/20 – Markets were closed
As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”
- "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future … 99% of them have no earnings!
- If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
- 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>
What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?
- "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.
Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
- Wednesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Verve therapeutics (VERV)
- Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and AxoGen (AXGN)
- Monday: Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions BLFS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Thursday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC),
- Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
- Tuesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), uniQure NV (QURE) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
- Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.